Global Markets Update How vulnerable are Treasuries to waning Chinese demand? We don’t see the possibility of China running down its foreign exchange reserves in attempts to support the renminbi as a significant risk to US Treasuries. The links between Chinese demand for... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in sales leads to tighter market conditions Housing market activity on most measures has seen further gains. Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in July, and are now up 16% since the start of the year. And while starts were essentially flat... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds of a September rate hike are 50-50 The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday, are close to 50-50. The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better news from China to outweigh first Fed hike The prices of key industrial commodities, notably oil, have been relatively calm in the last few days, helped by the holidays that closed China’s equity markets. Nonetheless, the robust US employment... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Disparity widens between manufacturing & other sectors With less than two weeks to go until the next FOMC meeting, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rates this month are still close to 50-50. The US economic data remain strong, with the notable... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report is fairly mixed and can be used to make a case for or against a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As far as we’re concerned, the September meeting is a 50-50 toss up... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Aug.) The struggles of the export-orientated manufacturing sector, which has been hit by the dollar’s surge and the weakness of global demand, have been getting most of the attention this week, but today's... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) The drop in interest rates triggered by the market turmoil of the past couple of weeks has given a boost to refinancing activity. Applications for home purchase have been more sluggish, but with... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year low of 51.1 in August, from 52.7 in July, reflects the ongoing impact of the dollar’s rapid appreciation and softening global demand... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) CoreLogic report that house prices saw a very large rise of 1.5% seasonally-adjusted in July, pushing the annual rate to a 12-month high. Tight market conditions are driving house prices higher, a... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver to end the year on the up The price of gold is vulnerable to one last dip if, as we anticipate, the Fed presses ahead with a first hike in US interest rates soon. We have reflected this risk in our end-Q3 forecast of $1,050... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Could prospect of a rate rise boost activity in the short term? The housing market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, there is some evidence that a gentle rise in rates can spur some potential buyers to get into the market before... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dithering Fed still waiting for perfect conditions We are now assuming that, even if the rally in global stock markets continues, some Fed officials will still want to hold off on raising interest rates until October or even December. A September rate... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market showing “some” further improvement Our econometric model points to a more modest 220,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which would probably push the unemployment rate down to 5.2%, from 5.3%. That would seem to meet the Fed... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will stock market upheaval deter the Fed from tightening? We doubt the recent plunge in global equity prices will have a major bearing on the FOMC’s decision next month. Nonetheless, it may provide an excuse for the Committee to hold fire. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
