US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in September from 51.1 in August is yet another illustration of the devastating impact that the strong dollar and weak foreign demand is having on... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and gasoline stocks both jumped last week, driven by lower refinery runs, higher imports and a dip in demand for oil products. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging external debt trigger a dollar crisis? Although America’s current account deficit is still a modest 2.4% of GDP, well below the 6.3% peak reached in late 2005, net external debt has more than quadrupled since mid-2007. Liabilities to... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of our M3 money measure accelerated to a five-month high of 5.6% in August, from 5.2%. The growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are even higher. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The increase in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 103.0 in September, from 101.3 suggests that lower gasoline prices trumped the fading impact from the financial market turmoil a... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) By posting a 0.5% gain during July, the national Case-Shiller index of house prices is beginning to move into line with other measures which have shown far stronger house price gains in recent months... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty back to the top of the agenda This week it will be uncertainty over fiscal policy and a possible Federal government shutdown that dominates the headlines. Congress needs to pass a continuing spending resolution by the end of... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) New home sales are finally building momentum, and are up by over 18% since June. While low levels of inventory suggest the pace of growth will slow, early evidence that mortgage applications for house... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow… but that’s okay Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 2.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in August was a lot better than we were expecting, but principally because the drop back in the volatile transportation category was smaller than... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) After three months of gains, subdued mortgage lending and low inventory levels meant existing home sales fell back in August. Those factors will weigh on sales in the short term, but as lending... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar debt not the reason for the Fed's caution The latest US financial accounts show that the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates from near-zero is not because the central bank fears that it could trigger a debt crisis, either in the US or in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fooling itself if it thinks uncertainty will ever clear The more the Fed procrastinates, the more we get the feeling that officials are fooling themselves into thinking that, if they only just wait a little longer, all the uncertainty will clear up and... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fannie Mae launches new housing sentiment indicator The new Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae has a good track record in forecasting measures of housing market activity. While future performance may not be as impressive, the drop in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
