US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in September was a much smaller fall than we were expecting, but it nonetheless illustrates the impact that the stronger dollar is having on manufacturing... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing credit conditions are beginning to boost FTB numbers Lenders have accelerated the easing of mortgage lending standards in recent months, thanks to a steady reduction in mortgage delinquencies and new GSE policies. That has started to boost the number of... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The September CPI report suggests that although domestic inflationary pressures are slowly building, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices will give the Fed an excuse to delay hiking interest... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep 15) The softness of September’s retail sales figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn’t going to hike interest rates until early next year. Our calculations now suggest that third-quarter GDP... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How tight are conditions in the rental market? On the basis of past form, the fact the rental vacancy rate has hit a 30-year low would suggest rental growth is set to surge. But the drop in the vacancy rate is being exaggerated by a rise in the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outcome of TPP deal irrelevant for US outlook The big news last week was the announcement of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the US and 11 other countries, which aims to lower trade barriers and set common commercial... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack New build sales finally making some headway The drop in mortgage rates towards the end of September has given mortgage applications a boost, as did the introduction of new disclosure requirements for mortgages as buyers acted early to avoid... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The uncertainty generated by September’s Federal Reserve meeting, combined with a drop in mortgage rates to below 4% for the first time since May, helped applications for house purchase reverse most... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) House prices rose by a substantial 1.5% m/m seasonally adjusted in August according to CoreLogic. Even accounting for the fact that early estimates of house price growth on this measure tend to get... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The huge widening in the trade deficit in August to $48.3bn, from $41.8 bn in July, demonstrates the extent to which deteriorating global growth and the sharp appreciation in the dollar have impacted... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is the Fed playing “catch-up” with the bond market? The federal funds rate is now expected to rise to less than 3% in a decade’s time, judging by the risk-neutral US Treasury yield curve. This rate remains well below the average projection of FOMC... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market fundamentals remain solid The slowdown in employment growth in August and September will probably delay the first interest rate hike until early 2016, but it doesn’t appear to be the start of a sustained deterioration in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Tight supply condtions help to push up house prices House prices are picking up again on the back of a very tight housing market.But over the next couple of years, as greater numbers of new homes come onto the market andowners of existing properties... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay rate hike until early 2016 The incoming economic data have been a lot more mixed recently, with the awful performance of exports and manufacturing, both dragged down by the dollar’s strength, now being compounded by a slowdown... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While it’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, we’ll make an exception in this case. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down. Payroll employment... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
