Global Markets Update What might strong US GDP data mean for equities? With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed to hike more than expected, but global fallout to be limited While the FOMC meeting will surely conclude today with no change in policy, we continue to expect US interest rates to be raised more than the markets anticipate in 2016 and beyond. Nonetheless, this... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & vacancy rates (Q3 15) A drop in the share of mortgages in foreclosure, alongside easing credit conditions which have boosted the number of first-time buyers, has helped the homeownership rate to rise from a 48-year low. 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The Case- Shiller measure of house prices showed that home values are continuing to grind higher, with the annual rate now at its highest level in almost a year. Tight supply conditions are behind the... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 1.2% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was actually better than we expected, but only because the drag from the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category wasn't as bad as we... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 5.0% in September butbank loans are still expanding at a healthy 7.7% clip. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales recorded a surprise drop of 11.5% in September. Yet new home sales data are notoriously volatile. And, given the strong performance of existing home sales in September, as well as the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling still likely to be raised before deadline The Treasury’s November 3rd deadline for raising the debt ceiling is getting closer without any sign that Congress is close to a deal to raise the limit. Yields on Treasury bills scheduled to mature... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales rebounded by 4.7% in September. While there are a number of factors pointing to a moderation in sales over the coming months, over the medium-term the outlook is broadly positive. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay first rate hike until early 2016 It is highly unlikely that the Fed will spring a surprise rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 28th October, and even the odds of a hike at the December meeting have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data point to slowdown in GDP growth Our calculations now suggest that GDP growth slowed to only 1.5% annualised in the third quarter. Even after the disappointment of September’s retail sales figures, third-quarter consumption growth... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 0.50% was as expected given that the economy most likely returned to positive growth in the third quarter. The uncertain outlook, however... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Participation rate will continue to fall The decline in the participation rate is almost entirely due to structural factors and there is little prospect of a rebound in the next few years. The downward trend in the participation rate... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) As expected, housing starts resumed their upward trend in September, confirming that the disruption over the summer caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York has now worked through. While the... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices consolidate but tone generally positive Commodity prices have given back some of the previous week’s gains, due in part to some mixed signals from the US and Chinese economies. Nonetheless, the overall tone remains positive, helped by... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of a rate hike this year even lower now The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates before the end of this year tumbled again last week, as the incoming data triggered some sizeable downgrades to estimates of third-quarter GDP growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
