Energy Update What do the weekly changes in US oil stocks actually tell us? Changes in US weekly crude oil stocks are most influenced by variations in net crude imports, which are extremely volatile. This means it is difficult to make inferences about prices just by looking... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate has finally found a floor Our call over two years ago that the homeownership rate would see further declines has proved broadly correct. But with foreclosures now back to historical norms, and credit conditions gradually... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will US equities and government bonds fare? US equities have fared better than US Treasuries in 2015. We suspect that this will remain the case over the next couple of years, as the Fed tightens monetary policy. Nonetheless, the longer-term... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of crude oil ticked up only slightly last week, whilst stocks of gasoline edged up again as refineries continued to increase production. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) October’s double-digit drop in housing starts was disappointing. But there are good reasons to believe that starts will bounce back in November. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) Low interest rates, falling unemployment and a reduction in the share of mortgages with negative equity all contributed to another drop in the delinquency rate in the third quarter. 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) There is now clear evidence of an acceleration in core services price inflation, which hit a six-year high in October. That acceleration has been partly offset by the deflationary impact of the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Medical care inflation due for a rebound Although the Fed expects to raise interest rates only very gradually next year, we suspect that an acceleration in core inflation, thanks in part to a rebound in medical care inflation, will force the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) & Business Sales (Sep.) The rebound in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure to a four-month high of 93.1 in November, from 90.0, presumably reflects the rebound in stock markets and the resilience of... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) The October retail sales report was a little bit weaker than expected, but doesn't change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a respectable 2.5%. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey shows labour market remains robust The rebound in the job openings rate to 3.7% in September, from 3.6%, illustrates that labour market conditions remain robust. September was also only the second month on record that the job openings... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Lack of inventory squeezes house prices higher Housing demand is being supported by a gradual easing in credit conditions, which helped the homeownership rate to pick-up from a 48-year low in the third quarter. But with inventory levels still very... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does the Keystone XL veto mean for oil prices? The recently-vetoed Keystone XL pipeline would have provided a relatively cheap means for Canadian producers to transport oil to refineries in the US where it could be processed for sale. As such, the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
