US Housing Market Update Renting to remain substantially cheaper than buying As mortgage rates fall, we think the difference between the cost of buying and renting will narrow from the current all-time highs. But even by 2026, renting will remain by far the more cost-effective... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2024) February’s tiny drop in new home sales cut short what appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in recent months. Even though the drop was extremely small, it still potentially casts some doubt over... 25th March 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Quasi-dovish Fed can’t keep the dollar down for long The US dollar has bounced back from its brief drop after the FOMC’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference, and is ending the week stronger across the board. To some extent that is... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but... 22nd March 2024 · 22 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some global market implications of BoJ tightening Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2024) Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the near... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still on track for a June rate cut Despite upward revisions to the median projections for both GDP growth and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s median forecast for interest rates still shows a cumulative 75bp of policy loosening this year... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024) The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will the equity risk premium disappear? Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the... 18th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: Will southern metros continue to lead? 1713279600 The pandemic-induced “great migration” fuelled rapid growth for apartment rents and house prices in southern metros.
