Commodities Update Ample supplies to keep corn prices under pressure While the US EPA’s finalised renewable fuel standard should boost demand for US corn next year, we think ample global supplies will continue to weigh on the price in the near term. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) While the decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.6 in November, from 50.1, left it at the lowest level since the recession ended in mid-2009, it doesn't mean that the economy is headed for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the 2% m/m rise in house prices in October was the highest since 2005. And although that figure is likely to be revised down, it is clear that very tight market... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the housing market heading for a slowdown or another boom? It is not out of the question that the coming rise in interest rates will derail the housing market recovery. Equally, however, it is plausible that a surge of pent-up demand, combined with low... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals struggle ahead of first US rate hike US dollar strength and the prospect of rising US interest rates continued to weigh on precious metals prices this week. In contrast, industrial metals prices were volatile, but generally ended the... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of dollar appreciation expected to wane next year At first glance, there would appear to be an inconsistency between our forecast that the trade-weighted dollar will increase by a modest 2% next year, while at the same time we also expect short-term... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewedfall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do notthink... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Oct.) October’s personal spending and durable goods data reveal a fairly muted start to activity in the fourth quarter. Real consumption increased by a modest 0.1% m/m last month, while non-defence capital... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued Some claim that the US stock market is heading for a collapse because they assume that its price/earnings ratio will inevitably plummet to its long-run average. This assumption is wrong if, as seems... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover but not until next year US and Chinese steel prices have continued to fall due to overcapacity and strong exports from China. However, the US government has begun to impose anti-dumping duties and Chinese output should fall... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 90.4 in November, from a revised 99.1, is hard to square with the usual drivers of confidence - gasoline... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack rapidly shrinking Our econometric model points to a solid 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in November, although we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%. Base effects mean that even if... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.) Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth accelerated to 4.9% in September, the highest rate in more than a year. Low numbers of homes for sale mean that even a small increase in housing... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market conditions brighten in October The 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls last month puts to rest fears that the earlier slowdown could be the start of a worrying downturn. The decline in the unemployment to 5.0% in October leaves it... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) As expected, existing home sales contracted in October. While housing demand is being supported by a strengthening labour market and gradual easing in credit conditions, a lack of housing inventory is... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
