US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Nov.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Dec.) Although the trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low of $42.4bn in November, from $44.6bn, the decline was only because imports fell at a faster pace than exports, which is hardly a positive sign... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The collapse in refinancing activity in the final week of 2015 looks to reflect seasonal issues, rather than a reaction to the Fed hiking interest rates. Indeed, applications for home purchase held up... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House price growth is accelerating as a rise in demand has combined with low inventory levels to boost sellers’ bargaining power. Increases in interest rates will act to cool the market to some extent... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jump in wage growth not all due to base effects Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2%... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in December, from 48.6, leaves it at its lowest level since June 2009 and will add to concerns about a deterioration in global demand triggered by... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks saw the largest fall since early July last week, despite a slight increase in production, as net imports dropped sharply. However, product demand also declined, with production of... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) Solid new home sales data for November lend weight to the idea that yesterday’s slump in existing home sales was a blip, not a cause for concern. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover slowly in 2016 After falling sharply in 2015, we expect US steel prices to recover slowly next year as a result of greater trade protectionism, further global capacity closures and improved demand. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Nov.) The monthly data on consumption and investment released this morning do little to change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualised. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling US production to support oil prices in 2016 The current weakness in crude oil prices partly reflects still-high production and stocks in the US, despite the collapse in the number of active drilling rigs there. But we expect the supply response... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) November’s slump in existing home sales was widespread, suggesting that new regulation, or perhaps concern about December’s rate rise, may have played a role. Either way, with housing fundamentals... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weak industrial demand continues to weigh on US silver trade US imports of semi-manufactured silver remained subdued in September, suggesting that industrial demand is yet to recover. In contrast, investors continued to buy into falling prices, boosting demand... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Low housing inventory drives market developments A lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. With homes hard to come by, sales have been constrained and house prices have come under upwards pressure as demand has... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
