Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week, driven by a drop in refinery inputs. What’s more, despite lower refinery production, there was another large jump in gasoline stocks. However, demand for oil... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will new disclosure rules drive high-end cash buyers away? Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to take more cautious view of latest market turmoil The latest slump in commodity prices, the renewed market turmoil and the apparent slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth are all good reasons why the Fed might ultimately decide against raising... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Even with the unseasonably warm weather giving housing starts a boost in the Northeast, across the country as a whole starts dropped by a marginal 2.5% in December. While that is something of a... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s retail sales report was disappointing across the board and suggests that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as low as 1.0% annualised. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why US natural gas prices could rise further The end of unusually warm winter weather in the US helps to explain the surge in natural gas prices since December. But we expect contracting supply, the start of LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling likely to fall further against the dollar, but not the euro After peaking in mid-November, sterling has fallen nearly 5% on a trade-weighted basis, making it the worst performing major currency bar the Canadian dollar over this period. The weakness will be... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How disruptive have the TRID regulations been? The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will lower oil prices ever become a net positive? The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market well placed to withstand Fed hike The housing market should be able to withstand the first rise in interest rates for nine years. Mortgage applications for home purchase in December were at their highest level in almost six years. And... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the US economy heading for a recession? The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Three reasons to be positive on silver in 2016 Silver’s prospects will remain closely tied to those of gold in 2016. While Fed tightening and renewed dollar strength should continue to weigh on the prices of gold and silver over the next year or... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 292,000 surge in non-farm payroll employment, together with the 50,000 upward revision to the gains earlier months should put paid to any fears that, even if fourth-quarter GDP growth ends up... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks slipped last week despite a slight increase in production and a fall in refinery inputs. However, a sharp fall in gasoline demand and a huge rise in inventories has stolen the... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
