US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The modest increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in January from 48.0 is somewhat encouraging but, more broadly, the manufacturing sector is still struggling to cope with the stronger dollar... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has household formation stalled? The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty unlikely to clear for another few months The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely last week, but it was deliberately non-committal about the risks to the outlook. It's debatable whether the current uncertainty will... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to a very modest 0.7% annualised in the final quarter of last year is a temporary blip. With employment increasing by a monthly average of 284,000 during that quarter and... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects will temporarily depress wage growth Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The 5.1% m/m decline in durable goods was due primarily to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile aircraft component. Nevertheless, the details suggest that equipment investment shrank in the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed doesn't completely rule out March rate hike The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely in the FOMC statement released today, but it was notable that it was no longer willing to describe the risks to the outlook as balanced. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Did the Fed err in raising interest rates? The renewed turmoil in global financial markets together with the downward revisions to estimates of fourth-quarter GDP growth in the US have prompted claims that the Fed made a serious policy error... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales followed in the path of existing sales by surging 10.8% in the final month of the year. But while the jump in existing sales was due to volatility caused by TRID, the rise in new home... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The increase in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence to a three-month high of 98.1 in January, from 96.3, illustrates that households are not buying into the pessimism in financial... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation to remain below 2% for longer The external deflationary pressure from the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices is persisting for longer than we expected. The lower profile for energy prices now means that headline inflation... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A shaky start for US LNG The sharp drop in crude oil prices has led to markedly lower Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and poses a risk to the economic rationale of US LNG exports. That said, the flexibility of US... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown in GDP growth unlikely to be sustained Our calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.0% annualised, largely thanks to a more modest 2.0% gain in consumption. The latter is hard to square with the continued... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales rebounded in style in December – recording their largest month-on-month gain since records began in 1968. The jump was due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules in early... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on Saudi comments and US blizzard After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
