US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of crude oil fell slightly last week, while gasoline stocks continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The key driver of the dip in crude stocks was a sharp drop in net imports. A small... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen sticks to view that interest rates will rise gradually Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress today revealed that, while the FOMC might not be ready to raise interest rates for a second time in March, she still anticipates a “gradual” series of... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are mortgage lending standards being eased too far? Survey evidence shows that banks have relaxed mortgage lending standards in every quarter for the past two years, and the average down payment is currently no larger than that seen just prior to the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales bounce back following TRID disruption After collapsing in November, existing home sales bounced back in December. That volatility was caused by the introduction of TRID disclosure requirements, which pushed some sales from November into... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations – are they really falling? The slump in market-based breakeven inflation rates has raised fears that falling inflation expectations could trigger a deflationary spiral in the US. But breakeven rates are measures of inflation... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen will reiterate “wait and see” message In her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week (to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday), Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to say that a March rate hike is completely off the table... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Although the 151,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January was below the consensus forecast of a 190,000 gain, the rest of the employment report was very encouraging, with the unemployment rate... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is US oil production falling? US oil production has been surprisingly resilient since oil prices collapsed in 2014 as companies have slashed costs and jobs and concentrated on only the most productive sweet spots. In this Energy... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation is biggest medium-term threat Putting aside the short-term threats from slower global economic growth, the stronger dollar and tightening financial conditions, the biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline jumped again last week, primarily due to an increase in imports of crude and weak demand for products respectively. However, the weather probably bears at least... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jan.) The decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 53.5, from 55.8 is disappointing, particularly as it continues a sharp downward trend from the peak of 59.6 last July. Fed officials will be concerned... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A fall in mortgage interest rates helped to boost mortgage applications in January. And although we think rates will increase this year, a strong labour market and easing in lending standards will... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) While we wouldn’t place too much faith in December’s reading of a strong 1.5% m/m gain in house prices, the latest CoreLogic report continues the recent theme of gradually rising house prices as... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Demand for business loans slumps The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a fairly sharp drop-off in the growth rate of loans to businesses, which suggests that investment will remain muted in the first half of this year... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
