US Economics Weekly Consumption growth rebounds The slowdown in real consumption growth to a more modest 2.0% annualised in the final quarter of last year was a disappointment, particularly as households were benefitting from a further decline in... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How important are foreclosures for housing inventory? The return to more normal levels of foreclosure activity has removed one factor that was helping to support the inventory of existing homes for sale. But foreclosures are clearly not a sustainable way... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of employment gains will inevitably slow Our econometric model points to a more muted 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, with the growth rate of average hourly... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 4.9% m/m increase in durable goods orders in January was flattered by a strong rebound in the notoriously volatile aircraft component, but details of the report bode well for equipment investment... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / Existing Home Sales (Dec./Jan.) The surprise rise in existing home sales in January provides further evidence that housing demand is being supported by very low mortgage interest rates and a strong jobs market. But with inventory... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic price pressures building The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near-zero levels... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of confidence to an eight-month low of 92.2 in February, from 97.8 suggests that the financial market turmoil earlier in the month is beginning to weigh... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Did the US stock market send a false signal again? The US stock market has made significant gains since hitting a trough on the 11th February. We expect it to make more headway as the news from China improves, and do not think that its prior slide... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing still not in recession The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What impact will lower oil prices have on the housing market? Low oil prices will act as a headwind to the housing markets of oil producing states and dent the demand for high-end homes from foreign buyers. But set against that, the money households save on gas... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.9% m/m increase in industrial production in January, which more than reversed a 0.7% m/m decline in December, was mainly due to a weather-related snap back in utilities output. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Against expectations for a small rise, housing starts contracted for the second consecutive month in January. However, even though they were depressed to some extent by the snowy weather in the... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to follow others in adopting negative rates Although a number of other central banks have now adopted negative policy rates, the chances of the Fed following suit are pretty small. Even if US economic conditions deteriorated, we suspect that... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic price pressures continue to mount Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The markets may have decided that the economy is heading for a recession, but obviously no-one told US consumers. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
