US Economics Weekly Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed While the UK Brexit vote triggered some initial volatility in financial markets, many of the adverse moves have already been unwound and overall financial conditions in the US remain considerably... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, from 51.3, was much better than consensus expectations and is consistent with GDP growth of a little more than 2%. Indeed... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July Our econometric model points to a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, thanks in part to the return of 35,000 Verizon workers who were excluded from the payroll survey in May. Under those... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US inventories of crude oil fell sharply in the week to 24 th June, on the back of constrained supply and higher refinery demand, but gasoline stocks rose again. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The sharp rise in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence in June suggests that the recent acceleration in consumer spending growth is set to continue. 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth looks good Despite the apparent slowdown in the labour market, the latest activity data point to a solid rebound in second-quarter GDP growth. Growth in underlying retail sales reached a two-year high in May... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy approaching full employment Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, the incoming monthly data point to a big rebound in second-quarter GDP growth and we still expect growth for 2016 as a whole to be 2.0%. The UK’s vote to... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up The growth rate of average hourly earnings has accelerated to 2.5%, from a norm of nearer 2.0% in recent years, and other measures like the Atlanta Fed’s tracker suggest that median wage growth is... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.2% m/m decline in headline orders last month undershot consensus expectations for a more modest 0.5% m/m decline partly because of a weaker than expected gain in the notoriously volatile... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) has inevitably triggered an immediate negative reaction in global financial markets, but we do not anticipate a significant sustained tightening in US... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) After a 12.3% m/m jump in April, it is not surprising that new home sales fell back in May. But even after a 6.0% m/m drop sales in May were 5.6% higher than in March. That suggests that new home... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales rose by a marginal 1.8% m/m in May, helped by low mortgage rates. But with sales back to their long-run average and the inventory of homes for sale very low, we doubt sales will... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Increased US drilling activity to limit upside for oil prices Early signs that rising crude prices have induced oil companies to bring drilling rigs back online suggest that US output could rise sooner than previously thought, especially in light of the... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
