US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2016) Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop? As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production was better than consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, primarily because of the stronger-than-expected rebound in manufacturing output. 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market nearing full employment The incoming labour market data, including the strong rebound in June payrolls, have confirmed our suspicions that the big declines in April and May were only a temporary blip rather than the start of... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected strength of underlying retail sales in June means that second-quarter GDP growth still appears to have been between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. Real consumption growth will be 4.0%. At... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit will have limited impact on housing market The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the sharp rebound in June payrolls as evidence that labour market conditions continue to improve, which should generate a more pronounced acceleration in wage... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumer spending will continue to drive GDP growth The latest evidence suggests that GDP growth accelerated to around 3% annualised in the secondquarter. Furthermore, the rebound in both of the June ISM surveys suggests that this strengtheningin... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June 2016) The 287,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in June suggests that the sharp slowdown in the preceding months was nothing more than ablip. Fed officials will want to see evidence of a more sustained... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.) Despite the widening in the nominal trade deficit to $41.1bn in May, from $37.4bn, net trade probably still provided a small boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we suspect was close to 3%... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will single-family housing starts ever recover? In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) The impact from Brexit is being felt in the mortgage market. Mortgage interest rates have dropped on the back of a decline in Treasury yields, which has given refinancing activity a boost. Rates are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains. With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
