US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16) Headline CPI inflation remained unusually low in July and the latest drop in energy prices will keep it below 2% for longer than we first thought. Core consumer prices rose by 0.1% m/m, which was... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul. 16) Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is top of the pack Our expectation for a 6% rise in house prices this year puts us in the top eight out of 105 forecasters. But with market conditions very tight, and only a small acceleration in monthly gains needed to... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex The latest data suggest that while firms are reluctant to increase capital expenditure, they are nonetheless continuing to expand their workforces. With the unemployment rate below 5%, however, the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16) The small rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that the weaker-than-expected July retail sales figures were a blip rather than the start of a more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 16) Retail sales were unchanged in July, as a rebound in motor vehicle sales was largely offset by a price-related drop back in the value of gasoline station sales. After a clearly unsustainable 4.2%... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit’s impact is already fading The impact of Brexit on the housing market has been short-lived and minimal. A widening in spreads meant that mortgage rates did not fall as far as Treasury yields, which have in any case since... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey points to tightening labour market The latest JOLT survey suggests that labour market conditions continue to tighten, which should generate an acceleration in wage growth later this year. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10th Aug. 16) Crude stocks rose again last week, despite drops in production and net oil imports. However, gasoline and distillate fuel stocks eased back. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in short-term interest rates is little to fear The recent surge in short-term market interest rates in the US is linked to the upcoming change in money market fund rules rather than any underlying financial problems 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the rental market losing steam? Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of consumption growth will inevitably slow The news that real personal spending increased by 0.3% m/m in June, along with the reported surge in auto manufacturers’ unit sales in July, implies that real consumption growth began the third... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.) The better than expected 255,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July will renew speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates as soon as this September, but we still think Fed officials will... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (3rd Aug. 16) Crude oil stocks rose last week, despite production falling and demand from refineries increasing. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell sharply. 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The drop in mortgage rates triggered by Brexit gave the refinancing sector a boost in July. But applications for home purchase dropped back, as tight credit conditions and a lack of housing inventory... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
