Commodities Weekly Focus shifts to US payrolls Hawkish comments by some Fed officials and a slight strengthening of the US dollar ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday weighed on the prices of most commodities over the past week... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of residential investment unlikely to last After providing a small but valuable contribution to growth over the past couple of years, residential investment unexpectedly became a drag in the second quarter, contracting at a 7.7% annualised... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 16) A lack of inventory is constraining existing home sales, with July’s drop reversing much of the growth seen in the previous three months. Indeed, the number of existing homes for sale is now at a 15... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul. 2016) Although the strong rise in durable goods orders in July was partly due to a massive rebound in the ever-volatile commercial aircraft category, the details of the report provide tentative evidence... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (24th Aug. 16) US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, despite demand remaining relatively strong and production falling. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption growth will inevitably slow The stagnation in retail sales in July was not entirely surprising. Following the 4.2% annualised surge in real consumption in the second quarter, it was inevitable that spending growth would ease to... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul. 2016) Against expectations, new home sales surged in July to reach their highest level in over eight years. But that has caused market conditions to tighten even further. And, with housing starts stalling... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) With the growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate at a solid 4.4% y/y in July and bank loan growth at an even stronger 7.7% y/y, the economy appears to be in good health. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by household debt? The latest data show that household debt is now close to its 2008 peak in dollar terms. However, the gains in income over the past eight years and the decline in interest rates mean that households... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will term premiums anchor US Treasury yields? The term premiums of US government bonds – the parts of their yields that do not capture expectations for short-term interest rates – are unusually low. Indeed, according to the estimates of some Fed... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook US natural gas prices have fallen back in recent weeks, largely as a result of forecasts of milder weather. While we think that production should hold up in the second half of 2016, we are still... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (17th Aug. 16) US inventories of crude oil fell last week, driven by strong demand and lower net imports. But increased drilling activity appears to be feeding through into output. 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries vulnerable to waning demand from overseas? A sharp increase in the cost of hedging has diminished the appeal of Treasuries to many foreign investors, especially those whose funds are denominated in yen and euros. This is potentially... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain small by past standards The world’s main current account imbalances look set to widen a bit in the coming years but should not pose a serious threat to the global economy. Oil producers’ surpluses probably won’t reappear... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
