US Commercial Property Update Consensus still moving in our direction The latest consensus figures have moved closer to our own total returns forecasts for the next three years. But they continue to expect a lower path for Treasury yields implying a smaller cap rate... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese gold craze likely to unwind later this year We think the price of gold will have eased back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated. 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rising home listings won’t derail our price forecast We think that reports of a wave of new resale supply coming onto the market are overblown. While the number of homes being listed for sale has increased compared to last year, it is still low by... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tough times for Japanese equities may not last We expect Japanese equities to do quite well this year, as hype around artificial intelligence proves a more powerful catalyst than the headwind we anticipate from a stronger yen. 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Falling full-time employment not a sign of weakness The rise in part-time employment is not a sign of economic weakness, but instead reflects the large inflow of prime-age women into the labour force, who have been the big beneficiaries of the post... 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Value falls of 25% still to come in worst-hit markets Our latest office metro forecasts highlight a continued divergence between southern metros and the western and major markets. That difference in performance will be driven by a smaller hit to demand... 8th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Further upside in US yields & dollar looks limited to us Continued strength in the US labour market may keep US Treasury yields elevated and the greenback strong in the short term, but we think the upside for both is limited from here. And the backdrop for... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Mar.) The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston climbs to the top of the apartment rankings We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy higher in most of our 17 metros over the next year or so. Atlanta and Houston are two key exceptions to this rule... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an equity bubble We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we... 4th April 2024 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily One boat the rising tide of optimism is failing to lift While a rising tide of optimism has lifted most boats in the US stock market so far this year, real estate is the notable exception. That may change if, as we anticipate, the 10-year Treasury yield... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
