US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Despite a positive economic backdrop supporting housing demand, very low levels of housing inventory are putting off potential buyers. Mortgage applications for home purchase fell for the second... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Market conditions tighten further A lack of inventory continues to drive developments in the housing market. The number of existing homes for sale dropped below 2 million in July, its lowest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, a surge in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The large 0.9% m/m gain in house prices reported by CoreLogic in July is likely to be revised down in due course. But with inventory levels at 15-year lows, the conditions are in place for house price... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices get a payrolls boost A weaker-than-expected US employment report on Friday all but removed the prospect of a US interest rate rise this month, although we still think a hike is likely before the end of the year. The... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Taking stock of the EIA’s oil inventories report The gyrations in oil prices in response to the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report are rarely justified, since the biggest determinant of weekly changes in US stocks is variations in net crude... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in labour’s share of income has further to run The gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the past couple of years has generated a cyclical rebound in labour’s share of income, which we suspect has further to run. At first glance, this... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.) The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.4 in August, from 52.6, is another reason to believe that the Fed will take a cautious approach and delay the next rate hike until December. With that... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report - (31st Aug. 16) US distillate fuel and crude oil inventories rose again last week, the latter increase owing to higher net imports and an easing back of refiner demand. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts? According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a stable stock market a sign of trouble ahead? The low level of the VIX index has led some to conclude that investors are being complacent about the risk of a major correction in the S&P 500. However, the fact that expected volatility is low by... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to an 11-month high of 101.1 in August, from 96.7 leaves the index at a healthy level and suggests that real consumption growth will... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun. 16) At the national level, house prices rose only modestly in June according to Case-Shiller. But, with market conditions tightening, we suspect gains will accelerate from here and for now see no reason... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low? The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
