US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 16) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates accelerated in August, with a particularly pronounced pick-up in narrow M1 money growth, but bank loan growth has slowed slightly. The latter is... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug. 16) As expected, housing starts fell back in August. But more of a worry is that building permits fell for the second consecutive month, indicating that builders have yet to respond to tight market... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed The big gap that has opened up between the CPI and PCE measures of core price inflation is now largely due to just one category, medical care. The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms continue to hoard cash overseas The cash held overseas by US firms has continued to grow at a rapid pace, rising to almost $2.5tn in 2015. The substantial tax bill most firms would face if they attempted to bring this cash home... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still relatively sanguine about the election Hillary Clinton’s recent stumble, both figuratively and literally, appears to have thrown the US presidential election race wide open again. The conventional wisdom is that the markets could react... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update UoM Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was unchanged at a five-month low of 89.8 in September, although it is still at a level that, historically, has been consistent with real... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Although core CPI inflation edged higher in August, it has been broadly unchanged this year, suggesting that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to raise interest rates next week. 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are US OIS rates really telling us about future Fed policy? US overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates have been driven down by a confluence of factors, some of which are unrelated to expectations for conventional monetary policy. As a result, caution should be... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 16) The weakness in retail sales and industrial production in August underline that the rebound in third-quarter GDP growth could be weaker than previously hoped, which is another reason for the Fed to... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up? Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (14th Sep. 16) US inventories of crude oil fell last week as imports rebounded by less than expected after the previous week’s hurricane-related disruptions. On the other hand, stocks of gasoline and distillates... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Market conditions tighten as inventory falls The number of existing homes for sale has fallen to a 15-year low, which is both constraining housing market activity and putting upward pressure on house prices. But as new households struggle to... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to hike rates again before December It is always possible that the Fed could surprise us with an unexpected rate hike next week, but we very much doubt that will happen, it just doesn’t fit Chair Janet Yellen’s more cautious style. At... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market slack no longer shrinking Since the start of this year the rate of improvement in labour market conditions has slowed to a crawl. While a welcome rebound in the participation rate helps to explain why the unemployment rate has... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth There is now a marked gap opening up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (8th Sep. 16) US crude stocks fell by the second largest amount on record last week. However, this was almost entirely due to a drop in imports which may rebound next week. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
