US Economics Weekly Could the neutral rate be even lower? While the decline in the neutral real fed funds rate in recent years can be explained in part by the decline in potential GDP growth, there are other factors, including increased risk aversion, higher... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices unlikely to rise much further Stronger supply and weaker demand from utilities over the next few months, assuming normal weather, should help keep the price of US natural gas steady until the end of the year. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is Airbnb behind the high number of vacant homes? While the rising popularity of Airbnb may have worsened housing shortages in some cities, it is hard to blame the apartment sharing website on the nationally high level of vacant homes. Rather, homes... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Stronger payrolls may not be enough to cut unemployment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a slightly stronger 190,000 in September, but this would probably leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (28th Sep. 16) US crude oil stocks fell last week as net imports and domestic production fell. However, gasoline stocks rose – despite lower refinery output – as demand weakened. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug. 16) Although durable goods orders were unchanged in August, the details of the report were weak. It now appears that equipment investment contracted in the third quarter, which means the risks to our... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve If Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul. 16) House price gains are picking up pace as buyers compete for a very limited number of homes for sale. At the national level, the 0.4% m/m rise in July was the largest for six months. And with supply... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug. 16) The drop in new home sales in August was smaller than expected, and comes on the back of an upwardly revised surge in sales in July. That has kept market conditions tight, which will weigh on activity... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth A marked gap has opened up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which has... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would President Trump start a trade war? It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became US President but ourbest guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed telegraphs a December rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% at last week's FOMC meeting, but it appears to be firmly on track for a December hike. However, the fed funds rate is likely to... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 16) Existing home sales fell in August, as extremely tight market conditions outweighed any boost to housing demand from favourable economic trends. With the inventory of homes for sale at its lowest for... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a December rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, but it appears to be firmly on track for a December hike. However, the fed funds rate... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (21st Sep. 16) US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week. However, imports and production rose whilst demand from refineries slipped back. Gasoline stocks also declined as demand jumped and output from refineries... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can we learn from the Zillow Confidence Index? At the national level, the Zillow index of housing market confidence offers a similar perspective to other measures of housing market sentiment. But with its short history and infrequent publication... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
