US Fed Watch Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in August was the largest for 10-months. Given very tight market conditions, that acceleration was expected, and further house price gains... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strong export performance The third-quarter GDP figures, due for release late this week, could provide a further boost to Clinton’s chances of winning. Although if our estimate that GDP growth picked up to 2.5% annualised is... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the new-build premium really falling? The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales rose by a respectable 3.2% m/m in September, helped by a welcome rise in the share of first-time buyers. But with inventory levels still very low, rising housing demand is more... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and gasoline stocks diverged last week with a large drop in net-imports dragging crude stocks down and a fall in demand helping gasoline inventories build. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The sharp drop in housing starts in September was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector, so shouldn’t ring too many alarm bells. And with building permits seeing a strong pick-up, much of... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Would a Clinton win really be a boon for the stock market? The conventional wisdom is that a Clinton administration would represent a near seamless continuation of the current Obama administration, but that view could be under-estimating the potential for a... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although headline CPI inflation increased to a two-year high of 1.5% in September, the more modest gain in core consumer prices suggests that underlying price pressures are building only very... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Although industrial production only edged higher in September, the 1.8% annualised rebound for the third quarter as a whole provides further evidence that the economy has regained some momentum, after... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed The marked slowdown in the rate at which the remaining slack in the labour market is being absorbed poses a big dilemma for the Fed. The standard unemployment rate has now been broadly unchanged at 5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the decline in October, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence remains at a fairly high level by past standards and consistent with a decent rate of real consumption growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m increase in September retail sales was largely due to a rebound in motor vehicle sales, with underlying sales growth now at a three-year low. Real consumption growth was still between 2.5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
