Commodities Update What would a Trump win mean for commodities? The initial uncertainty that would follow the election of Donald Trump as US President would surely undermine the prices of assets that are perceived to be riskier, including industrial commodities as... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory? A Trump victory in the US elections next Tuesday may send shockwaves through financial markets, at least temporarily. But the economic consequences for the world as a whole would be less dramatic. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped last week, driven by a flood of imports, a small uptick in production and a decrease in demand from refineries. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty The presidential election race is now too close to call, raising the possibility of a near-tied election result that would be aggressively disputed by one or both of the candidates. Under those... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) A rise in mortgage rates led a drop in refinancing activity in October, and a lack of housing inventory pushed applications for home purchase to their lowest level since the start of the year. With... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The modest pick-up in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month high of 51.9 in October, from 51.5, echoes the apparent improvement in global manufacturing conditions, in particular the latest rise... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How will EM currencies react to Fed tightening? Emerging market (EM) currencies have been stable in recent months, even as the likelihood that the Fed will tighten policy in December has grown. This supports our view that EM currencies will take... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The bigger than expected 2.9% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year. As such, this leaves the Fed firmly... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The drop in the homeownership rate in the second quarter was reversed in the third, as a favourable economic backdrop allowed for a gradual rise in first-time buyers. As a result, the number of rental... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still relatively subdued We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 190,000 in October. Given the recent rebound in labour force participation, however, we suspect that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) Despite the 0.1% m/m decline in headline orders last month, September’s durable goods report is actually a very slight positive as far as third-quarter GDP growth is concerned. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (26th Oct. 16) US crude oil stocks fell last week as demand from refineries picked up. However, a rise in production and an uptick in imports meant the decline in stocks was only small. 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Explaining recent developments in housing equity withdrawal Our estimate of housing equity withdrawal (HEW) shows that, in aggregate, households have yet to return to using their homes as a piggy bank. While the factors holding HEW back are likely to ease the... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) The small 3.1% m/m rise in new home sales in September comes after a significant downward revision to August’s reading, highlighting that low inventory levels are preventing any sustained rise in... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
