UK Economics Update Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK While Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election adds another element of uncertainty to the UK’s economic outlook, there are reasons why the consequences for the UK may be smaller and less... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys provide further evidence that labour market slack is diminishing only very gradually. That said, they suggest that the recent acceleration in wage growth is set to... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Clinton win looking increasingly likely Going into today’s presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton appears to have established a solid three to four point lead in the polls over Republican rival Donald Trump but, given... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity constrained by low inventory Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase have been on a steady downward trend since mid-September. The drop in refinancing can be attributed to rising mortgage interest rates, as... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy in decent shape on eve of US elections Investor concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election have caused substantial currency and equity market movements in the past few weeks. However, the Vix “fear gauge” has not yet risen... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere The jump in US average earnings growth, reported earlier today, is the latest indication that inflation there is on the rise. But aside from stronger oil prices, there is little sign of a broader pick... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly US election taking centre-stage Energy and agricultural prices took a tumble this week, but for the most part industrial and precious metals performed well. Although the dollar fell, the depreciation was driven by uncertainty over... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty will persist well past election day This week’s presidential election is now too close to call. Even in the aftermath of the FBI Director’s letter to Congress a week last Friday, Hillary Clinton still appears to hold a slim lead in the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid gain in employment and the acceleration in hourly wage growth in October will reinforce expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December (assuming that the election doesn’t... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The modest pick-up in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month high of 51.9 in October, from 51.5, echoes the apparent improvement in global manufacturing conditions, in particular the latest rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Era of ultra-low mortgage rates drawing to a close The Fed looks set to hike the fed funds rate in December, heralding the end of the period of ultra-low mortgage interest rates which has persisted since 2010. We expect 30-year mortgage rates to rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for December rate hike As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it appears to be intent on hiking interest rates at the upcoming December meeting. Nevertheless, next week’s... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a Trump win really be bad for the S&P 500? The consensus is that a victory for Donald Trump in next Tuesday’s presidential election would deal a lasting blow to the US stock market. Our sense, though, is that the performance of the S&P 500... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
