DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The solid 0.8% m/m increase in retail sales in October brings to an abrupt end the run of weaker underlying sales gains over the past few months and, further, suggests that households were not unduly... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update No need for panic over coming drop in multifamily starts The latest NAHB survey on builders’ expectations for multifamily production points to a 15% drop in starts over the next year. But with the demand for rental accommodation set to hold up, we don’t... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in November suggests that last-minute worries about the presidential election had little bearing on sentiment. With the impact of... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed? As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New – even more bearish – forecasts for Treasuries We are revising our forecasts for US Treasuries in response to the possibility of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. We are, however, retaining our forecasts for the S&P 500. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Four reasons a Trump presidency is still bullish for gold prices Markets appear to believe that a Trump victory will lead to major infrastructure spending and much more aggressive Fed tightening. As a result, gold prices have fallen. While some fiscal stimulus is... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump rally may be a triumph of hope over reality Commodity markets seem to believe US President-elect Trump will quickly deliver the one thing that he probably can’t – a surge in infrastructure spending – and are ignoring all the bad stuff that... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could President Trump mean for energy commodities? Commodity markets shrugged off the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election with the initial falls in oil prices already being reversed, helped by (probably misplaced)... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Trump victory creates more business uncertainty The reaction in financial markets to Donald Trump’s surprising US election victory has been limited so far, thanks in large part to the surprisingly conciliatory tone of his acceptance speech this... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A dramatic increase in US oil production last week helped boost stocks. However, the return of refineries from maintenance absorbed some of the extra supply. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump victory to bring lasting uncertainty and volatility Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech, which suggests that he can be a more statesmanlike President rather than the demagogue of the election campaign, has helped to reverse some of the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump win to boost gold prices further The surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election is likely to lead to greater safe-haven demand over the next few months, with gold a clear winner. While heightened risk aversion... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Opportunities for China from Trump’s election Despite the threat of being hit with high tariffs and being labelled a currency manipulator, China will see benefits in the election of Donald Trump. In the near term, the dollar’s weakness against... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
