US Employment Report Preview Wage growth has further to rise We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 180,000 in November, which was probably enough to cut the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Annual wage growth probably held steady at a seven... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The strong rise in headline durable goods orders in October was largely due to a surge in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category. That said, even excluding transport, the details of the... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries? More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, although the gain of 2% m/m was modest. A lack of inventory is preventing an otherwise favourable economic backdrop from giving sales... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth The prospect of a major fiscal stimulus means that we are formally raising our forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter financial conditions won’t stop the Fed Although the tightening of financial conditions has persuaded the Fed to hold off from tightening monetary policy on several occasions over the past couple of years, we doubt that the recent surge in... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities take stock After last week’s wild swings, the prices of most commodities stabilised this week. That said, positive comments from OPEC and Russian officials on the prospects for output cuts gave oil prices a... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the modest monthly gain in core prices pushed the annual core inflation rate down to 2.1% in October, from 2.2%, the details still suggest that underlying price pressures are gradually... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The 25.5% m/m rise in housing starts in October was the largest since 1982, and starts were up in all regions and across both the single and multifamily sectors. While some of that gain will be... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trump victory proves divisive Industrial metals prices were already rising ahead of Donald Trump’s election to the US Presidency, but his victory appeared to provide new grounds for optimism as markets focussed on his plans for... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A recovery in net imports of crude oil helped to fill stocks last week, whilst higher output from refineries boosted inventories of petroleum products. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The stagnation of industrial production in October, which was weaker than the consensus forecast but in line with our own estimate, was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
