US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in October was mainly a result of the unwinding of the distortion caused by the spike in soybean exports earlier in the summer. It also suggests that net trade... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates on the rise following Trump win Trump’s win, and the expected fiscal stimulus that it will generate, has led to a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields. In turn, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to its highest level... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November’s employment report wasn’t perfect, with average hourly earnings contracting by 0.1% m/m, but the solid 178,000 gain in payroll employment and the drop in the unemployment rate to a nine-year... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to a five-month high of 53.2 in November, from 51.9, is another illustration that the US factory sector is gradually recovering from the impact of the... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home sales can withstand the coming rise in mortgage rates In contrast to the rise in mortgage rates following the 2013 taper tantrum, the latest jump in rates is due to expectations of a fiscal stimulus, not concerns about a less supportive monetary policy... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The surge in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a nine-year high in November echoes the improvement in other measures and suggests that the election result had a clear positive impact... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.) The 0.8% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in September means prices are on track to meet our forecast for a 6% rise this year. Beyond that, higher mortgage interest rates will take... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect of a major fiscal stimulus next year, at a time when the economy is already close to full employment. The subsequent surge in Treasury yields... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could repealing Dodd-Frank boost the wider economy? With the Republicans maintaining control of both Houses of Congress, Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect that the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act, which overhauled the financial sector... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of Trump’s victory The prospect of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency has prompted us to raise our forecasts for US growth and inflation but we have left our economic forecasts for the rest of the world... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales fell in October, as low levels of inventory continued to bite. And while a rise in housing starts could help, any boost to home sales will take time to manifest itself. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A slump in net imports of crude oil and another jump in demand from refineries helped to drag down crude inventories last week. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
