US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2024) The fall in existing home sales in March was triggered by mortgage rates climbing back above 7% the month before. Even so, transactions remain above the trough at the end of last year, consistent with... 18th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What different timings for rate cuts mean for DM bond yields We forecast that bond yields will fall back in most developed markets (DMs) over the next year or so, as central banks generally embark on bigger easing cycles than investors currently expect. But... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The correlation between bond yields and equites The correlation between changes in bond yields and in equities has rarely been so negative, and we suspect this will continue as yields fall back and equities rebound. 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Mar. 2024) Housing starts weren’t able to build on the strong performance of the previous month in March, falling by the largest monthly amount since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Although some... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar.) The strong rise in retail sales in March and upward revision to February’s data will further support the Fed’s stance that there is no rush to start lowering interest rates. 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold until later this year The third consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in March, coming on the heels of the 303,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, fuelled fears that a pick-up in the real economy is now translating into a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The causes, consequences, and future of the Treasury sell-off We don’t expect the tough times to last for Treasuries. But although their woes so far have coincided with big gains in the stock market (at least until very recently) we don’t think a recovery in... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of inflation risk premia Despite yet another hotter-than-expected US CPI release, there are few signs in bond markets that long-term inflation expectations are de-anchoring. That supports our base case that US Treasury yields... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Mar. 19-20) The minutes of the March meeting suggest that there is still scope for at least a couple of interest rate cuts later this year and confirm that the Fed is likely to soon slow the pace of its balance... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How big a threat is inflation to US equities? Today’s slump in S&P 500, following the release of a hotter-than-expected US CPI report for March, underscores the US stock market’s vulnerability to disappointing news on inflation. (See Chart 1.)... 10th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Alongside the pick-up in monthly payroll employment gains, the third consecutive 0.4% m/m rise in core CPI pretty much kills off hopes of a June rate cut from the Fed. The annual core CPI inflation... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
