Commodities Update Fed tightening still consistent with strong commodity demand Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, which probably explains the relatively muted responses in commodity markets. We expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017, which... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates & looks to accelerate tightening in 2017 As universally expected, the Fed today raised interest rates for the second time in this economic cycle, with that hike coming a full year after the first increase and more than seven years after the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov.) The trivial rise in headline retail sales in November is partly some payback after the very strong gains in recent months. Nonetheless, real consumption growth is now likely to be a more modest 2.0%... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms still reluctant to invest despite post-election cheer The sharp rise in the NFIB optimism index in November shows that the election result has had a clear positive impact not only on consumer confidence but small business sentiment too. The details... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US equities fare better under Trump than Reagan? The Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past, by being characterised by looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies. With this in mind, how is the performance of the US... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December, to its highest level in almost two years, suggests that the post-election rebound in sentiment has been sustained. It... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy? Some have suggested that further appreciation of the dollar would pose a significant threat to the outlook for the world economy. In contrast, we think that the US currency is unlikely to strengthen... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike? The uncertainty surrounding next week’s Fed meeting is not about the out come of that meeting – a 25 basis point rate hike is all but guaranteed – but over President-elect Donald Trump’s potential... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus A closer look at the rental vacancy rate Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those... 8th December 2016 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil stocks fell last week despite a large rebound in net imports. However, gasoline stocks surged as output from refineries increased and demand dropped. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trumponomics, Reaganomics and the US dollar Although we expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen, we doubt that it will climb as high as it did in the early 1980s. Admittedly, the Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The sharp rise in mortgage rates following Trump’s win has had differing impacts on mortgage applications for refinance and home purchase. While refinancing activity continued to decline in November... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Year ending on a positive note After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
