US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories rose by a near record level last week. But stocks of gasoline were drawn down a little. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market resilient in face of rising interest rates Mortgage applications for home purchase held up in January, even as mortgage rates resumed their upward trend. However, inventory shortages are weighing on home sales. The number of existing single... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could Trump politicise US statistics? The Trump administration’s alarming tendency to dismiss objective facts as “fake news”, which can be countered with their own “alternative facts”, has led to claims that the President and his team... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) The recent strength in house price growth continued in December according to CoreLogic. Prices were estimated to have increased 7.2% in 2016 – the fastest pace of growth for 2½ years. With inventory... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The marginal decline in the nominal trade deficit in December was broadly in line with expectations and confirms that net trade was a big drag on fourth-quarter GDP. But that fourth-quarter drag was... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Mixed news for commodity markets Most commodity prices took a bit of a hit this morning as China raised its short-term interest rate, in a clear sign that supporting growth is no longer the primary immediate goal of policymakers... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January’s strong gain in non-farm payrolls suggests that the labour market started the year on a solid footing. However, the drop back in annual wage growth is another reason to think the Fed will... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will Fed tightening mean for EM dollar bonds? Although emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds yields have fallen during the past two bouts of US monetary tightening, this time around we expect them to rise as aggressive rate... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode At the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, the Fed issued a near-identical statement to the one released in December, which strongly suggests it has no intention of raising interest rates again at... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose by more than expected last week. But the focus remains on OPEC. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.0 in January, from 54.5, confirms that the manufacturing recovery has continued into the New Year, and also suggests that GDP growth is set to rebound in... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) After jumping following Trump’s win in November, mortgage applications for home purchase held their ground in January. But a lack of housing inventory will act to constrain demand for home purchase... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) After reaching a 50-year low in mid-2016, the homeownership rate edged up for the second consecutive time in the final quarter. A lack of inventory is preventing a faster rebound in homeownership... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
