US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by the slump in bank lending? The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong start to 2017 unlikely to be sustained We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth slowed to a still-healthy 190,000 in March, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7% and annual wage growth holding steady at 2.8%. 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will rolling-back regulations help increase housing starts? The executive order requiring a review of the Waters of the United States rule has pushed homebuilder confidence to a 12-year high. However, the rule has been suspended since its introduction in 2015... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose slightly last week, however there were further drops in inventories of gasoline. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Trump ends the “war on coal” The prices of US natural gas and renewable power are likely to be far more important to the US coal industry than President Trump’s attempts to deregulate and revitalise it. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Stronger income growth to support housing market A strong labour market, robust consumer confidence and the gradual return of first-time buyers means that the demand for homes will see further gains even as mortgage interest rates rise. But with... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The surge in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to its highest level in more than 16 years suggests that the apparent weakness of real consumption growth in the first quarter will prove... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) House prices made a strong start to 2017, with a 0.6% m/m gain in January. That pushed the annual rate up to a 31-month high of 5.9%. Very tight market conditions suggest that price growth will... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys suggest economy is on the right track The activity data for January and February suggest that the economy got off to a slow start to the year. Our calculations suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will be a modest 2% annualised... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care failure doesn’t derail prospects for tax reform The health care bill fiasco doesn’t necessarily alter our view on the prospect for tax cuts. We had already pushed back our forecast of both the potential size of any fiscal stimulus and its timing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump’s agenda gets a reality check The debate over the Republicans’ health care bill last week is the clearest indication yet that implementing President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda won’t be as easy as he may have hoped. Although... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.7% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in February was helped by another strong rise in commercial aircraft orders, but the improvement in underlying orders provides further evidence that... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Good weather and a lack of existing homes for sale gave the new homes sector a boost in February, generating a robust 6.1% m/m rise in sales. A shortage of cheaper, starter homes will weigh on sales... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the health care vote threaten Trump’s fiscal stimulus? Thursday’s key House vote on the Republicans’ health care bill has been attracting a lot of attention in the markets amid fears that a defeat would threaten President Donald Trump’s plans for a major... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped again last week due to a rise in imports, but there were further drops in inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Rising interest rates - how high would be too high? Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
