US Housing Market Update Where will new single-family homes be built? For the most part, states with strong income growth and low homeowner vacancy rates will see the largest gains in single-family housing starts. The majority of those are in the West, although Florida... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed may not need to reduce its Treasury holdings after all After hiking the fed funds rate at both the June and September FOMC meetings, the Fed will begin to phase out the reinvestment of maturing principal on its asset holdings at the December meeting. A... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to diminishing labour market slack The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, despite the slowdown in payroll employment growth last month, labour market slack continues to diminish. They also provide further evidence that this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Can Trump make American manufacturing great again? Globalisation has undoubtedly played some role in the loss of five million US manufacturing jobs over the past 15 years. But the evidence suggests that rapid productivity growth driven by automation... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the oil market as oversupplied as US crude stocks imply? Relentless growth in inventories of US crude oil caused prices to slump in March. However, the headline stocks figures are potentially a little misleading and we think that the market is probably... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market makes steady start to year Housing market activity has been stable since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase and mortgage interest rates are more-orless where they were in December, as are existing... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loose financial conditions open the door to more Fed hikes Despite the Fed raising interest rates twice in the past four months, broad financial conditions in the US have actually loosened. The current calm in financial markets, if sustained, would be another... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of auto sales less alarming than it seems The recent weakness of new motor vehicle sales has been causing a bit of alarm, but there are good reasons to think that fears of a sudden collapse in demand will prove to be overblown. In any case... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointing 98,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March will be seized upon by the usual suspects as confirmation that the US economy is poised for collapse, but the truth is this is mostly... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Housing in energy-producing states not yet out of the woods As oil prices have seen a modest pick-up, so has employment growth in many energy-producing states. But, given the lags between changes in the labour market and its impact on the housing market, as... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks swelled last week contrary to expectations as production grew and exports slipped back. However, inventories of petroleum products still fell. 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage applications for home purchase and refinance, as well as mortgage interest rates, were all stable during March. Indeed, all three have barely changed since the end of last year. Interest... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The trade deficit narrowed sharply in February to $43.6bn, from $48.2bn in January, as the surge in imports from China ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday was reversed. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Very low inventory levels and steady demand combined to drive up house prices in February. A 0.9% m/m gain after seasonal-adjustment was the fastest rate of growth since April 2013. Anyone looking to... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Another weak first quarter and ‘soft’ versus ‘hard’ data The strength of most sentiment and activity surveys, despite the apparent weakness of first-quarter GDP growth, has led to a number of claims that we should put our trust in the so-called ‘hard’ data... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index in March is a little disappointing given the recent strength of the regional surveys, but still leaves the index close to a two-year high and suggests... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
