US Housing Market Update What later Fed rate cuts mean for the housing market A later start to Fed rate cuts than we anticipated will push the fall in mortgage rates and recovery in activity into the second half of the year. But as we think that the Fed Funds rate will... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Cuts delayed rather than cancelled The recent run of stronger inflation and activity data has unsurprisingly shaken the Fed’s confidence that inflation is on track to return to the 2% target. In that environment, we expect the May FOMC... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook Life after the bubble The latest edition of our Long-Run Asset Allocation Outlook sets out what we think lies in store for equities, bonds, REITs, and commodities over the next 10 years and beyond. This includes relatively... 24th April 2024 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update All signs still point to lower shelter inflation Although the BLS’s new tenant rent index has overstated the speed of the slowdown in shelter inflation, the leading indicators remain unanimous in their message that the slowdown is still coming. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Permanent online shift is mixed news for retail The latest e-commerce statistics suggest that the pandemic has left US online sales on a permanently higher trend. That will be bad news for retail rents generally, though the detailed data also hint... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Mar. 2024) The large uptick in new home sales in March is consistent with our above-consensus prediction that sales of new homes will climb to 750,000 by year end. 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Stock markets fall back: consolidation or worse? Stock markets are having a tough start to the quarter, but we think that they will rebound, notably in the US, thanks to renewed enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. 22nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Protectionism seen as a vote winner by both parties In a campaign stop at a union headquarters this week, President Joe Biden called for a tripling of the tariffs on steel imports from China to 25%, from the current 7.5% rate, originally introduced by... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Geopolitics might not thwart a recovery in bank shares All nine constituents of the S&P 500 diversified banks index have now released their earnings reports for Q1. While the performance of their shares has typically been underwhelming of late, in some... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is the future brighter for US banks? Higher Treasury yields, a resilient US economy, and relatively low valuations are three reasons why we now think that the future for US banks in general is a bit brighter. 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curve phoney war redux; how different is this time? Despite the ongoing surge in long-term government bond yields, the US yield curve remains inverted. As such, it is worth revisiting what the implications are for financial markets, and how this... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
