US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) The pace of house price gains slowed in February according to Case-Shiller, with the smallest month-on-month rise since July last year. But a strong rise in new home sales in March has pushed down... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will retailers and restaurants drag the economy under? The acceleration in the pace of retail bankruptcies reflects a structural shift to online sales, while the weakness of restaurant sales is partly due to lower grocery prices. 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices to rise despite cooler summer Even with slightly lower-than-expected domestic demand this year, higher exports and lower supply should be enough to put some upward pressure on US natural gas prices. 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales delivered an upside surprise in March, reaching their highest level in almost a decade. Yet that rise needs to be seen in the context of the previous month’s sharp drop and sales... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Competitive pressures to weigh on core inflation The unexpected decline in core consumer prices in March is not a signal of sudden weakness in the real economy. Nevertheless, it is partly due to heightened competition in some sectors, which will... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the shift to single-family starts stalled? Following a dip towards the end of last year, the share of multifamily starts has recovered and builders have become more optimistic towards the sector. Our expectation for a shift toward single... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging confidence boost consumer spending? The recent surge in consumer confidence appears to have been partly driven by the election of President Donald Trump, but the strength of the labour market, rising equity prices and low gasoline... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation restrained by new competitive pressures The drop back in core CPI inflation to a 17-month low of 2.0% in March was partly due to weather effects, but also reflects an increase in competitive pressures in some sectors, which will persist for... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The continued rebound in refinery activity led to a modest fall in US crude oil stocks and a rise in gasoline stocks last week. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Although larger than expected, the 6.8% m/m drop in starts in March was not significant given the instability of the monthly data. Looking ahead, high home-builder confidence and a chronic shortage of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m increase in March industrial production was almost entirely due to a weather-related 8.6%m/m bounce back in utilities output. After a near-record warm February, when heating demand fell... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Core inflation and retail sales both weak Some Fed officials will be disturbed by the unexpected drop back in core CPI inflation in March, but this won't prevent a June rate hike, particularly as the fall was partly due to one-off changes and... 14th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump faces several near-term challenges President Donald Trump’s new-found enthusiasm for realpolitik rather than the “America First” doctrine he championed in his inaugural speech is encouraging, but his administration still faces several... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The small increase in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a three-month high in April is further evidence that household spending growth will rebound in the second quarter. 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Investment growth to pick up this year First quarter GDP growth is shaping up to be weak again this year, but one bright spot is likely to be a big increase in investment. The rebound in oil prices, continued recovery in the housing market... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks fell last week for only the second time this year as net imports declined and inputs to refineries increased. Meanwhile, inventories of petroleum products continued to fall. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
