US Economics Update Consumption growth set to rebound in second quarter After coming to a near standstill in the first quarter, we expect consumption growth to rebound to more than 2% annualised in the second quarter. Furthermore, there are good reasons to expect even... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Tax reform likely to give housing market a boost President Trump’s plan to raise the standard deduction would make the mortgage interest deduction less valuable, which has raised some concerns in the housing industry. But, if anything, with... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) The March CoreLogic house price index offered no evidence of a let-up in house price growth. After seasonal-adjustment, the 0.9% m/m gain was the same as that seen in February. That pushed the annual... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr.), Income & Spending (Mar.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index in April is not a huge worry since the index is still well above its average over the past two years and at a level historically consistent with 3% GDP... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Explaining the divergence between pending and existing sales The gap that has developed between pending and existing home sales looks to be one more consequence of very low inventory levels. With such limited choice, buyers are increasingly reluctant to pull... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could a foreign profit tax pay for Trump’s fiscal plans? The tax plan released by the White House on Wednesday was short on detail, but looked broadly similar to President Donald Trump’s pre-election plan. With the deep cuts to individual income and... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The trivial 0.7% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, below the consensus forecast at 1.2%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates again in June. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) The homeownership rate edged up in the first quarter of 2017, but a recovery has been held back by the low number of homes available to buy. In turn, the shortage of existing homes is, in part, down... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls get back on track We estimate that non-farm payroll employment recovered from last month’s weather-related blip with a robust 185,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate probably ticked back up to 4.6%, but this... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was weaker than expected, but confirms that business equipment investment enjoyed a strong first quarter. 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the US about to withdraw from NAFTA? Only a few weeks after the Treasury passed up the chance to label China a currency manipulator, a new report from Politico suggests that the White House is close to finalising an Executive Order on... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump's new tax plan looks a lot like the old one The “new” tax plan that the White House unveiled today looks a lot like President Donald Trump’s old economic plan from the election campaign, with deep cuts to corporate and individual tax rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks slumped for the third consecutive week as demand from refineries rose to its highest level on record. Meanwhile, both gasoline and distillate inventories increased sharply. 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still on track for a June rate hike The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, but the statement should keep open the prospect of a hike in June. Admittedly, the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The Capital Markets Analyst Q2 2017 - As good as it gets for US assets? We think that the best days are over for assets in the US, in both absolute and relative terms. For example, we expect bond yields to rise further there than in other developed economies over the next... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The small fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in April only partly reversed the surge in March, and left the index close to a 16-year high. As such, it does little to change... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
