US Economics Weekly Labour market very close to full health Almost every indicator suggests that US labour market conditions are the tightest they have been since the financial crisis, possibly even the tightest in decades. Nearly every sector is now operating... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (May) The small increase in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence leaves it at a level consistent with consumption growth rebounding to over 5% annualised in the second quarter. Spending... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) The weakness in core CPI inflation, which dropped below 2% in April for the first time since October 2015, will give Fed officials some pause for thought. But with the unemployment rate at a decade... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Does slowing rental growth pose a risk for house prices? Affordability constraints have weighed on rental growth in recent months which, in theory, could lead to slower house price gains. However, the large number of variables which influence house prices... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will tax cuts boost sustainable GDP growth to 3 percent? There is little evidence to support the claim by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that tax cuts would pay for themselves by boosting economic growth to 3% or even higher, particularly not when the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks declined by the largest amount so far this year, in spite of increasing US oil production. Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, as demand for petroleum products continued to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Auto sector woes not enough to knock economy off course A flood of off-lease vehicles has hit used car prices and new vehicle sales, and the glut of vehicles still in the pipeline suggests that the sector’s woes will worsen in the months ahead. But this is... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest full employment is close Recent surveys show that the strength of business sentiment is fuelling a recovery in capital investment while ensuring that firms’ demand for labour is as strong as ever. With the pool of unemployed... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homes selling fast as inventory shortage worsens The inventory of homes for sale continues to decline. The months’ supply of existing single-family homes dropped to just 3.9 in March, the lowest reading since records began in 1982. The lack of homes... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gasoline consumption to accelerate after weak start We expect growth in US gasoline demand to pick up over the rest of the year as employment and wages rise. What’s more, a trend towards purchases of used cars and light trucks should offset reductions... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the low level of inflation expectations a concern? The stubbornly-low level of inflation expectations, even as actual inflation has been trending higher, could become a troublesome issue for the Fed. On some measures, household inflation expectations... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The robust 211,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in April confirms that the more modest 79,000 increase in March was just a weather-related blip. With both the official and the broader U6... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The very modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.7bn in March, from a revised $43.8bn, confirms that net trade provided a small boost to first-quarter GDP growth. 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Fed leaves door open to June rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged today, but the statement kept the door open to another rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. We still expect another three 25bp hikes from the Fed this year... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp fall in the amount of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) prevented commercial stocks from falling by as much as expected. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Despite a drop in mortgage rates, mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinance essentially just held their ground in April. That subdued picture reflects a lack of homes for sale, as... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
