US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) After seasonal-adjustment, CoreLogic reported that house price gains stabilised at a robust 0.8% m/m in April. A lack of homes for sale is acting to dissuade some buyers from entering the market... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Wage growth not being held back by mix of jobs created The slowdown in payroll employment growth over the past year or so has been concentrated in low wage occupations, indicating that the overall mix of jobs being created has improved. This makes the... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook for consumption growth bright The rise in real consumption in April, following an upwardly revised gain in March means that a sharp increase in consumption growth in the second quarter is now largely baked in the cake. Following... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) & Internat’l Trade (Apr.) With the unemployment rate dropping to a 17-year low, the Fed will continue to hike interest rates even though trend employment growth has slowed and core inflation remains stubbornly below target. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the US leaving the Paris Agreement significant? The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change will not alter our forecasts of US demand for energy commodities, since the agreement was non-binding and President Trump had no... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell for the eighth consecutive week as demand from refineries increased and net imports fell. Gasoline stocks were also drawn down as consumption picked up. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed at a fairly healthy level in May, suggesting that economic growth is still on track to rebound to 3% annualised in the second quarter. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker dollar fails to lift commodities With the exception of a few agriculturals, the prices of most commodities fell last month. Markets chose to shrug off the persistent weakness in the US dollar. Instead, data showing a slowdown in... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why has rental growth slowed? The recent slowdown in rental growth does not reflect an easing in tenant demand but rather seems to reflect a surge in the number of new multifamily developments being brought to market. As... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling showdown looms again Congress might need to raise the debt ceiling by late August, a little earlier than previously anticipated, and it has become increasingly clear that, even though the Republicans control both Houses... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response CB Cons. Confidence (May), Income & Spending (Apr.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in May is nothing to be worried about because the index is still at a very high level. Taken together with the personal... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.) Disappointing activity data of late has not prevented headline rates of house price inflation from picking up again in the year to March. We expect house price inflation edge up further in the second... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Little scope for participation rate to keep rising While the overall participation rate has continued to trend down, there has been a sharp rebound in the share of 25-54 year-olds in the labour force. This has added 1½ million additional people to the... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) & Q1 GDP (2nd Est.) The weakness in April’s durable goods figures suggest that the 7.2% annualised increase in equipment investment the first quarter is unlikely to be repeated in the second. Nevertheless, allowing for a... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview How much further can the unemployment rate fall? We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 200,000 in May. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 4.4%, but the surveys suggest that it will fall further soon and the upward pressure on... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
