US Economics Weekly Fed still to convince the markets of further rate hikes Fed officials continue to anticipate one more rate hike in the second half of this year, but markets are not even convinced that the Fed will hike rates again within the next two years. The Fed has... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The stagnation in industrial production in May is nothing to worry about since it follows a large gain in April, which itself was revised higher. Admittedly, recent falls in the oil price have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tighter US sanctions would have limited impact Legislation passed by the US Senate to tighten the sanctions regime on Russia provides further reason to think that medium-term growth in Russia will be extremely weak. But the near-term economic... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates and plans for balance sheet normalisation As widely expected, the Fed raised its policy rate target by an additional 25bp today, to between 1.00% and 1.25% and, despite the recent weakness of core inflation, Fed officials still expect to... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude inventories resumed their downward trend last week, but gasoline stocks increased on the back of low demand and high refinery output. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in selling sentiment won’t cure low inventory levels The share of households seeing now as a good time to sell has exceeded the share seeing now as a good to buy for the first time since records began in 2010. But, past rises in selling sentiment have... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (May) The continued weakness of core inflation, which fell to a two-year low of 1.7% in May, presents a dilemma for Fed officials. It won’t stop them from hiking interest rates later today, but it increases... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms shun banks for other sources of finance Although the sharp slowdown in C&I bank loans over recent months has received plenty of attention, total corporate sector debt actually expanded by a record amount in the first quarter, suggesting... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Has the natural unemployment rate fallen? A decline in frictional unemployment and shifts in the composition of the labour force, which is now on average older and better educated, mean that the so-called natural unemployment rate has fallen... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little evidence of a bubble in technology shares Some investors are bound to be feeling nervous after Friday’s near-2.5% drop in the NASDAQ 100, given the rout in technology shares during the bursting of the dot com bubble. However, the technology... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dilemma getting worse The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but faces a growing dilemma over its plans for the rest of the year. Core inflation has dropped back recently, while... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Yellen may set out balance sheet plans as early as next week We expect the Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates for the third time in seven months at the FOMC meeting that concludes on 14th June. There is also a good chance that it announces formal... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline unexpectedly rose last week, driven by a rebound in crude imports and a slump in demand. 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May.) Mortgage applications jumped by 7% in the week ending 2nd of June. Despite a fall in mortgage rates, that rise was driven not by remortaging, but by applications for home purchase, which were last... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity stalls due to low inventory Despite a strong economic backdrop, housing activity has stalled since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase have done no more than hold their ground since their post-election... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
