Energy Update Will US shale continue to flood the oil market? US shale production growth is likely to slow sharply towards the end of the year as the recent low prices cap the number of drilling rigs. What’s more, fewer efficiency gains will start to weigh on... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another rise in net imports contributed to a slight increase in crude oil inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks fell in spite of weak demand for petroleum products. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will smaller footprints give a lift to new home sales? The drop in the average floor area of new homes started in the first quarter suggests builders are now moving towards constructing more affordable homes. And, given that a lack of cheaper homes has... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the flatter yield curve signal a slowdown in GDP growth? Yield curve inversions have been near-perfect leading indicators of recessions over the past forty years, but there is little evidence to suggest that the flattening of the curve that we have seen... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The continued strength of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which rose from 117.6 to 118.9 in June, is beginning to look a little suspect when other measures have fallen back in recent... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The 0.2% m/m gain in house prices was the smallest gain on the Case-Shiller measure since May 2014, and appears to confirm that price pressures have been easing since February. However, an easing in... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The softness in underlying durable goods orders in May suggests that business equipment investment expanded at a much slower pace in the second quarter. Nonetheless, we still estimate that second... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices knock the economy off course? The further drop in oil prices this week, to below $43pb, means that the recovery in mining investment seen in the first half of the year may be at least partly reversed in the second. That said, we... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter rebound driven by consumer spending The latest data indicate that GDP growth has rebounded to nearly 3% annualised in the second quarter, mainly due to a similar-sized gain in real consumption growth. Indeed, although underlying retail... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The 1.1% m/m rise in existing home sales in May was better than expected, although that only partly revered the previous month’s decline. The bad news is that May’s rise in sales has only worsened the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell again last week. However, production and net imports both rose. Meanwhile, higher demand prompted a fall in gasoline inventories. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing activity constrained by lack of inventory The latest drop in mortgage interest rates has not boosted housing market activity, which is being constrained by a severe lack of inventory. With housing starts faltering, we doubt inventory levels... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market bound to hit the skids? Those who claim that the US stock market is bound to hit the skids soon point to the fact that Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio is now more than double its long-run average of 14... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The drop in the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence to a seven-month low in June isn’t overly concerning as confidence had been unusually elevated for some time. In any case, the index... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Housing starts once again surprised on the downside in May, contracting for the third month in a row. The multifamily sector is primarily responsible for the decline, but single-family starts have... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
