US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.) Production data for June confirm that the industrial sector saw its biggest quarterly expansion for three years in the second quarter. Furthermore, while the retail sales and confidence data, also... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 1.7%, continues the recent run of soft inflation data. Earlier this week, Chair... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks plunged last week by the largest amount so far this year. Another rise in refinery runs, in tandem with a decline in net imports, contributed to stocks falling below 500 million... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Drop in housing starts not helping low inventory Lacklustre housing starts, which dropped for the third month in a row in May, will do nothing to ease the very low levels of inventory. In turn, low inventory is holding back search and sales activity... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target The recent drop back in core inflation, even as the unemployment rate has fallen further, adds to the evidence that the Phillips curve has flattened. The reduced sensitivity of inflation to shifts in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June) The 222,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which was well above the consensus forecast at 179,000 and even our own more upbeat 200,000 estimate, is another illustration that the real economy is in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Distressed sales are still distorting house prices The Case-Shiller index has reported a sharp easing in seasonally-adjusted house price growth in the early stages of this year. But there are good reasons to think that the legacy of the surge in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude and gasoline dropped sharply last week as demand picked up and imports fell back. 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.) Despite the small narrowing of the trade deficit, from $47.6bn in April to $46.5bn in May, net trade still looks to have been a small drag on GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the non... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase lost some steam in June, with the 0.9% m/m increase the smallest since February. With mortgage interest rates once again on the rise, and a severe shortage of... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) Annual house price inflation was a robust 6.6% in May according to CoreLogic. The chronic lack of inventory is behind the rise, and with limited chance of inventory levels improving this year, house... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the manufacturing sector heading for another downturn? The prospect of a renewed downturn in manufacturing activity is a concern, particularly with activity in the mining sector also likely to be hit by lower oil prices. Despite the weakness of some of... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy There is still considerable uncertainty over whether Congress will vote to approve a new healthcare bill but, if it does, the short-term effects on the economy would probably be mildly positive and... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.8 in June, from 54.9, leaves it at its highest level in nearly three years and supports our view that annualised GDP growth has rebounded quite strongly... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the Illinois’ budget crisis a one-off? Even if Illinois legislators manage to agree on a new budget and stave off the threat of a credit rating downgrade in the near-term, adverse demographics mean that the public finances in Illinois and... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate likely to fall even further We estimate that the monthly gain in non-farm payrolls rebounded from 138,000 in May to 200,000 in June. The unemployment rate probably fell further, perhaps to as low as 4.1%. Meanwhile, base effects... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
