US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Given the very low level of inventory, the 1.8% m/m drop in existing home sales in June was expected. Sales have now made no progress over the past year, even as robust housing demand means those... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q3 on a strong note. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The weaker dollar bolsters commodities This week started on a positive note for industrial commodities with strong June activity and investment data out of China. A weaker US dollar was also supporting commodity prices, more generally... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness in core inflation will persist until next year The Fed is unlikely to make any major policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting, but the statement will probably concede that the recent drop back in inflation has been more broad-based than Chair... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is the Fed nearly done raising interest rates? The markets remain sceptical that the Fed will continue to normalise interest rates over the next couple of years. But even with inflation still below target, the simple policy rules that the Fed... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Four key risks facing the oil market The oil market’s attention is firmly on rising production in the US and the outlook for stocks there. However, there are a number of risks elsewhere which are potentially being overlooked and which... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Non-residents buy more homes despite strong dollar Even with a strong dollar pushing up the price of US homes for most foreign buyers, in the year to March non-resident buyers increased their spending on residential property by 72%. We suspect fears... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What does the health care debacle mean for tax reform? The apparent failure of the Senate Republicans to agree on a health care bill to replace Obamacare does not mean that President Donald Trump’s plans for a fiscal stimulus are dead and buried. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.1% y/y last month, up from 4.8% y/y a month earlier. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another large drop in crude stocks provides further evidence that the market is slowly starting to rebalance. Gasoline stocks also fell as output from refineries dropped back. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are bond “bubbles” bursting? Although the yields of government bonds remain very low compared to their averages since the early 1980s (see Chart below), this does not imply that their valuations are still extremely inflated, as... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December Given the continued weakness of core inflation, we now expect the Fed to delay the next interest rate hike until December. Accordingly, while there is a chance that the statement following next week’s... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased In our last Global Policy Watch, published in April, we argued that aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies was likely to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. Since then, the chances... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What can past tightening cycles tell us about Fed policy? Markets focused this week on supposedly dovish comments in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress, but in truth she did little more than repeat the existing Fed line. As long as... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cautious appraisals holding down house price growth Experience suggests that with housing market conditions so tight, house prices should be rising considerably faster than their current rate of around 6% y/y. One reason why they are not may be that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
