US Housing Market Update What can inventory tell us about state-level house prices? In the absence of state-level data on the months’ supply of unsold homes, a comparison of inventory levels in each state to their long-run average has, in the past, proved a reasonable leading... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in real GDP in the second quarter was driven by a rebound in real consumption growth, and suggests that the economy is still on track to grow by around 2.2% in 2017 as a whole... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2) The homeownership rate hit a three year high in the second quarter, as a strong labour market contributed to a gradual rise in the number of first-time buyers. But the fact that the homeowner vacancy... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep unemployment rate on downward trend We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, which should have been enough to push the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. As labour market conditions tighten further, we expect wage... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 6.5% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in June was flattered by a 131% surge in the ever-volatile commercial aircraft category. But the underlying details were also fairly encouraging and... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong export demand to support US natural gas prices A surge in demand for US natural gas from Mexico and Canada as well as bourgeoning shipments of LNG to Europe and Asia should give a boost to natural gas prices over the next year. 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Lower global inflation will not prevent policy “normalisation” The global picture for monetary policy has changed a little recently because inflation has been lower than expected in many countries. We now think the Fed is likely leave its policy rate on hold in... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed suggests balance sheet normalisation will begin in September As widely expected, the Fed left its policy settings unchanged today, while hinting that it will begin the process of winding down its balance sheet as soon as September. The Fed will have plenty of... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) The marginal 0.8% m/m rise in new home sales in June provides further evidence that sales volumes are struggling to gain momentum despite the fact that new homes are selling at the fastest pace since... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The small rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index in July takes it to its second highest reading in 16 years, and suggests that consumption growth will accelerate in the second half of... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) Case-Shiller reported a marginal easing in monthly house price pressures in May. But that softening reflects problems with the seasonal-adjustment process. Annual growth was unchanged at a robust 5.6%... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US corporate credit spreads stay low? US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook All good, for now Commodity prices have held up well over the last quarter, encouraged by positive economic data out of China, falling expectations of US interest rate rises and signs that crude oil stocks are finally... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
