Global Economics Update Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back Monetary conditions remain highly supportive of economic activity, and should continue to be so in the years ahead. While we expect the Fed to begin winding down its balance sheet in Q4 and the ECB to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The renegotiation of Nafta: a primer Talks to renegotiate Nafta are set to begin on 16th August and look increasingly unlikely to result in major changes that would disrupt Mexico-US trade. Even so, there are still a number of potential... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again A weaker US dollar has given some support to oil prices over the last month. However, the inverse relationship is likely to break down again over the next year as rising US interest rates support the... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The ninth consecutive weekly fall in US commercial crude stocks provides further evidence that the market is rebalancing. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months at least, which... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are similarities with 2007 a cause for concern? Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), which triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Some are of the view that history may be about to... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys show that labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, while this is still not translating into significantly faster wage growth, it might finally be prompting... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homeowner vacancy rate falls to 17-year low The latest data on vacancy rates confirms that housing market conditions are tight. Very low inventory levels pushed the homeowner vacancy rate to a 17-year low in the second quarter. That will... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, together with the drop back in the unemployment rate to a joint 16-year low, suggests the Fed will still need to raise rates again this year, even if... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices lead the way up It was generally good news for energy commodities in July. Oil prices jumped as stocks in the US slumped, the market grew concerned about the possibility of sanctions on Venezuela and the dollar fell... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another increase in refinery runs led to a fall in crude oil stocks last week. We expect refinery runs to remain high in the coming weeks. This should lead to a sharp drawdown in inventories and help... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Mortgage applications fell in July, primarily due to a fall in refinancing. But home purchase applications dropped too, held back by low inventory. So while robust job creation and easing lending... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest PMIs, published today, suggest that global manufacturing growth continues to be quite rapid and add to evidence that the world economy has plenty of momentum. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.) Despite the small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July, the index is still above its average level in the second quarter and is consistent, on past form, with GDP growth of over 3%... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker US dollar boosts commodities The prices of most commodities rose last month. In part, this was due to a weaker dollar. But stronger economic activity data for China also played a role. We think that growth in China is likely to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) According to Corelogic, annual house price growth rose to 6.7% in June. But while market conditions remain tight, new homes inventory is steadily rising and cautious home appraisals are holding back... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read