Energy Watch Growing supply will limit any gains in oil prices this year Crude oil prices have risen over the last month as demand has picked up and stocks have tumbled. However, supply, especially from Nigeria, Libya and the US has risen rapidly. This Energy Watch looks... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What are the implications of geopolitical risk for commodities? The increasing frequency of terrorist attacks and international conflicts has prompted a spike in geopolitical risk in recent years. We find that, among commodities, gold and Brent offer the best... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is it Amazon’s fault that the Fed can’t hit its inflation target? The shift to online sales is having a transformative effect on the retail industry, but does not explain the weakness in core inflation, either this year specifically or the Fed’s more general failure... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The sharp increase in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August takes it back to the highs seen earlier in the year, and is a sign that consumption growth will remain strong over... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in multifamily starts will support rental growth Developers have responded quickly to signs that rental vacancy rates in multifamily buildings are edging up, with starts over the past three months reaching their lowest level in four years. That... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes Even if the dollar doesn’t weaken any further, the 7% depreciation in trade weighted terms already seen this year will help support GDP growth via the resulting boost to exports. But the recent moves... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed, not China’s demand, to remain key driver of Treasuries Although China’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by more in June than in any other month in the past six years, we doubt that renewed Chinese buying of Treasuries will keep their yields low in the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in July, which included a 0.1% m/m decline in manufacturing output, was a little weaker than we had expected. That said, with industrial production rising at... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Next recession only a few years away We expect the current economic expansion to continue for the next year or two, by which time it will be the longest on record. But all expansions come to an end, and the rise in interest rates we... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Persistent strength in refinery runs led to the biggest weekly decline in commercial crude oil inventories so far this year. We expect stocks to continue to fall, which should support oil prices. 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Housing starts surprised on the downside in July, with a 4.8% m/m fall pushing starts to a three-month low. The drop was entirely down to the multifamily sector, with single-family starts holding... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The strong gain in retail sales in July, together with the upward revisions to May and June data support our forecast that third-quarter GDP growth will be between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. With jobs... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Productivity growth likely to remain muted The recent pick-up in productivity growth is at least partly due to tighter conditions in the labour market, with the dwindling pool of the unemployed forcing firms to invest in additional... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The weakness in core CPI inflation persisted in July, although transitory factors continued to play a sizeable role. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will North Korea tensions continue to weigh on US equities? The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has weighed on the S&P 500. But provided that war is avoided, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn in the index. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
