US Housing Market Update Subdued new home sales are not holding back starts It is tempting to link the recent softness in new home sales to builders’ apparent reluctance to up the construction of single-family homes. But with new homes selling very quickly, and a rising share... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp drop in imports and jump in demand from refineries helped to drain stocks last week. But the market’s focus remains on the impact of Hurricane Harvey. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hurricane Harvey will have little impact on national economy Hurricane Harvey is a national tragedy, but the impact on the national economy will be minimal. We might see a small uptick in initial jobless claims in early September and a very modest adverse... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The increase in consumer confidence in August is remarkable given the nuclear threat from North Korea and violent protests in Charlottesville. With labour market conditions still exceptionally tight... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) The 5.8% annual gain in house prices reported by Case-Shiller in June was the highest in three-years, as a shortage of inventory boosted prices even as active housing demand has edged back. Tight... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling negotiations about to enter crucial stage Congress should act to raise the debt ceiling by mid-October, but a short shutdown looks inevitable. Moreover, the tensions between the White House and the various Republican factions in Congress make... 28th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s passionate defence of the post-crisis tightening of financial regulation in her Jackson Hole speech today isn’t going to go down particularly well at the White House. Donald... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Household debt not a concern Household debt levels may now exceed their pre-crisis peaks in dollar terms but, more importantly, debt remains at an easily manageable level relative to disposable incomes and, after factoring in low... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The big drop in headline durable goods orders in July is nothing to worry about, since it was entirely due to a drop back in orders in the volatile aircraft category. The more important news was that... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Trade momentum still strong, despite Trump The latest esimates of world trade volumes reinforce the impression that global trade has coninued to expand rapidly in recent months. What’s more, the most timely indicators of freight traffic and... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Worsening affordability not to blame for subdued home sales The average monthly mortgage payment has reached a nine-year high at the same time as home sales have stalled, but we doubt the first is causing the second. The fact home sales are being agreed in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) As expected, the lack of homes for sale weighed on existing home sales in July, pushing them down to their lowest level in almost a year. But those homes which are for sale are selling very quickly... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy? Whoever is leading the Fed next February, policy will be driven mostly by economic developments, which we think will prompt the FOMC to raise rates four times in 2018. But a new Chair, along with... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects We forecast a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August, and suspect that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below the current end-year projection of Fed officials. The surveys suggest it could... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another fall in US crude stocks means that inventories are now about 30 million barrels below last year’s level. Crude stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few months as demand remains... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) Against expectations of a small rise, new home sales fell by 9.4%m/m in July and saw their first annual decline in 1½ years. But new homes are selling very quickly, which suggests underlying housing... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
