US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last While the recovery in business investment looks set to continue, the latest surveys suggest that firms will soon have to increase the pay they are offering if they want to hire additional workers. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will Harvey lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies? Concerns that Hurricane Harvey will lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies look over done. Houston has one of the highest levels of home equity in the country, which will persuade many mortgage... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stopgap debt ceiling deal makes the Fed’s job harder A number of developments this week – including Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s resignation from the Fed, the stopgap deal to keep the government funded for only three months and the arrival of Hurricane... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Refinery shutdowns due to Hurricane Harvey caused a surge in crude oil stocks but a slump in gasoline inventories last week. Stocks are likely to be exceptionally volatile over the next month. 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Harvey & Irma potential costs begin to mount Estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey have been rising in recent days, but we still expect the short-term negative impact on activity and employment to be modest. Unfortunately, it now... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hurricane Harvey to depress US oil demand Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are likely to have a larger negative impact on US oil demand than on oil production over the next few months, which could delay market rebalancing. 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug.) The trade deficit widened trivially to $43.7bn in July, from $43.5bn, but net external trade is still on course to provide a modest positive contribution of around 0.3% points to third-quarter GDP... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage rates declined in each week of August to reach 4.06%, a 10-month low. But while that spurred an 8.8% m/m rise in refinance applications, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped for... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What do immigration changes mean for the economy? The announcement by the White House that it will phase out the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, which provides temporary work permits for 800,000 children of illegal... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Drop in mortgage rates fails to boost activity Falling Treasury yields have pushed down the 30-year mortgage interest rate over the past few weeks. It now sits at its lowest level since early-November. But that drop in interest rates has not led... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) House prices continued to march higher in July according to CoreLogic, with a monthly gain of 0.8% m/m after seasonal adjustment. Tight market conditions are responsible for the steady rise in prices... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test President Trump’s suggestion that he would cut off all trade with countries that trade with North Korea is an empty threat when it comes to China. But the risk of some form of trade sanction has... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can Trump hit the 3% growth target after all? The upward revisions to second-quarter GDP growth, which is now estimated to have been 3.0% annualised, suggest that the ambitious growth targets set by the White House may already have been achieved... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Aug.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-year high in August illustrates that, despite the softer pace of payroll employment growth, activity continued to expand at a healthy pace last... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report was disappointing across the board but given the potential seasonal problems – with weak initial readings in August subsequently revised higher in previous years – it isn’t... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Trump and China boost metals prices Hurricane Harvey severly disrupted oil production, refining and trade in the US at the end of August. The US government was even forced to release crude supplies from its strategic reserve. Meanwhile... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
