US Economics Weekly Fed to press ahead despite inflation "mystery" As the statement and updated projections from this week’s FOMC meeting made clear, a majority of Fed officials remain convinced that the recent weakness of core inflation is mostly due to transitory... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How could tighter ECB policy affect property yields? Tighter monetary policy in the UK, US and euro-zone in the next couple of years will undoubtedly cause risk-free rates to rise. However, given that property’s yield spread against risk-free rates is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed undeterred by weak core inflation The Fed’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.0-1.25%, as well as its long-anticipated move to formally announce the start of the balance sheet normalisation process next month, came... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s increase in US crude stocks is mainly due to the lingering impact of Hurricane Harvey. Demand for petroleum products remains reasonably strong, which should help the market rebalance. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales saw a 1.7% m/m drop in August, the third month in a row of falling sales. As has been the case for some time, a lack homes for sale was the cause of the drop. Despite a rise in the... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts failed to make any progress in August, dropping by 0.8% m/m. Admittedly, the decline was driven by the volatile multifamily sector. But the building permit data also show that single... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects The Fed’s reversal of QE is another sign that the world is inching away from ultra-loose monetary policy. But it is planning to proceed slowly and avoid surprises, and no other central bank is likely... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation showing signs of resurgence The V-shaped rebound in the three-month annualised rate confirms the slump in core CPI inflation that began in the spring was mostly due to transitory factors, which are now fading. The annual core... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in median income a welcome improvement The rapid rebound in real median household income over the past few years, from a 16-year low in 2011 to a record high in 2016, illustrates that it is not just the top five percent who are benefitting... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Aug.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Sep.) Retail sales and industrial production both came in well below consensus expectations in August, although a lot of that weakness resulted from the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey toward the end... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home valuations are not at dangerous levels A comparison of median new home prices to median household income implies that housing valuations are at levels which could foreshadow a price correction. But we put more faith in valuation measures... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry about Fed and ECB policy normalisation The next stage of monetary policy normalisation in the developed world – balance sheet reduction by the US Fed, and the shift towards QE tapering in the euro-zone – will not have a major impact on... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s report confirms that the earlier decline in core CPI inflation was largely due to idiosyncratic factors that are now fading or going into reverse. We still don’t expect the Fed to hike... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report As we expected crude oil production rebounded last week but many refineries remained shut, swelling crude stocks and pulling down gasoline inventories. Next week’s report should show a significant... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to stand pat until next year A plethora of recent developments mean that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again until next year now, although we do expect it to announce the start of its balance sheet normalisation at... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Hurricanes and housing market activity Despite damaging around half a million homes, Hurricane Katrina had no discernible impact on home sales or housing starts in the South compared to other regions. Accordingly, we are not expecting a... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
