US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The August CoreLogic house price index shows that house prices are continuing to come under upward pressure. A robust 0.8% m/m gain pushed the annual rate to a three-year high. Given how tight market... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Sep.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 13-year high of 60.8 in September, from 58.8, is the latest illustration of the benefit to the manufacturing sector from the weaker dollar and strong... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth After another soft start to the year, US economic growth is now benefitting from an upturn in global activity and a loosening of financial conditions. The weaker dollar should boost export growth... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No clear signal from China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in September, but both suggested that smaller, private sector manufacturers are struggling. The authorities appear aware of the sector’s woes as the cut... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ample supply weighs on agriculturals There were some sharp moves in metals prices this week, as investors took positions ahead of the weeklong holiday in China. Meanwhile, oil prices edged higher on speculation that OPEC will extend its... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are concerns about labour shortages justified? The slowdown in construction employment and earnings growth looks, at first glance, to be inconsistent with builders’ growing complaints about labour shortages. But with job openings rising, and house... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation In her speech earlier this week, Chair Janet Yellen stressed that, despite the weakness of core inflation this year, the Fed still intends to push ahead with further interest rate hikes, with most... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes will batter payroll figures The September employment report is likely to be affected heavily by the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Our best guess is that payrolls rose by around 100,000, about half of the gain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still hawkish on rate outlook In his speech today, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz showed that he remains confident in the economy, suggesting that another interest rate hike is coming this year. That said, we still expect... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans flesh out tax cut proposals The unified tax proposals released by Republicans today offer more detail than before, but there are still a number of missing pieces that make it hard to estimate the overall cost of the plan... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed normalisation not a game changer The US Fed’s decision to begin scaling back its balance sheet nearly eight years after it started QE is a major milestone, but global financial conditions should remain highly accommodative for a long... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in exports and demand from refineries last week helped to draw down crude stocks. We expect these trends to continue which should help to narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the next few weeks. 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Headline durable goods orders rebounded partially in August, but the bigger news was the strong increases in non-defence capital goods orders and shipments. The latter suggests that business equipment... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The small drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September appears to be entirely due to the impact from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and is likely to be reversed in the coming... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.) Despite a relatively healthy supply of new homes for sale, sales surprised on the downside in August, falling by 3.4% m/m. But even with home sales falling, overall conditions in the housing market... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
