US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in September provides further evidence that the economy is bouncing back from the disruption caused by the hurricanes. Real consumption growth still looks to have slowed in... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m rise in headline consumer prices in September was driven by a spike in gasoline prices due to Hurricane Harvey, while there was a more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices. But the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are new homes shrinking? The average floor area of new homes has been shrinking over the past 18-months. Smaller lot sizes may be partly responsible. But we suspect the key driver is increased construction and land costs... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stage set for a pick-up in wage and investment growth The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys underline that labour market conditions are exceptionally tight, and suggest that the recent pick-up in wage and investment growth has further to run. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Lack of affordable homes for sale hits first-time buyers House price growth is at a three-year high but, given how tight market conditions are, experience suggests they should be rising even faster. Cautious home appraisals and tight credit conditions are... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will a move towards full expensing boost investment? The shift to full expensing of firms’ capital investments included in Republicans’ tax plans would provide a temporary boost to the economy by encouraging businesses to bring forward investment... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market? The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the skyrocketing ISM surveys too good to be true? The surge in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices in September leaves them consistent with annual GDP growth of nearly 4%, but there are some doubts over whether activity really is that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 33,000 decline in non-farm payrolls in September was worse than the consensus forecast at 90,000 or our own 100,000 estimate but, frankly, all of us were waving a finger in the air and guessing... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing of the trade deficit to $42.4bn in August, from $43.6bn, provides further evidence that net trade was on course to make a small positive contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will Corporate America shore up the Treasury market? Corporate America has been masquerading as a major “foreign” investor in US government bonds in recent years. This Focus considers whether its healthy appetite will continue and anchor Treasury yields... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep.) The surge in the ISM non-manufacturing index is a clear sign that the economy is recovering quickly from any hurricane-related disruption and that the underlying pace of GDP growth remains strong. A... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Record low inventory constrains sales and lifts prices Housing starts have stalled over the past year, there has been no increase in the number of homes listed and inventory levels have fallen to record lows. That is constraining housing market activity... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Following two months of declines, mortgage applications for home purchase rose by a marginal 2.0% m/m in September. But that rise reflected buyers bringing applications forward at the start of the... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Prime-age participation has further to rise The share of people aged 25 to 54 who are in the labour force is likely to rise further over the coming years, as labour market conditions continue to tighten and disability rates drop back... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
