US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales surged by 19% m/m in September to close to a 10-year high. However, this follows two months of subdued data, meaning that sales across Q3 were broadly unchanged from Q2. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch FOMC meeting could clash with Chair announcement The Fed’s policy meeting next week could provide some insight into whether the majority of officials still support a December interest rate hike. But it will otherwise be overshadowed by the imminent... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 2.2% m/m rise in durable goods orders in September confirms that business equipment investment posted another big gain in the third quarter, while the survey evidence suggests that things could... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth rising in September to its fastest pace in more than two years, although growth in narrow money continues to slow gradually. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAFTA concerns boost lumber price Concerns that the US will withdraw from NAFTA has led to a jump in the price of lumber. Prices are now at a 4½ year high. However given that lumber accounts for a relatively small share of overall... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales posted a modest month-on-month gain in September, ending a run of three consecutive monthly falls. But that rise would need to be extended for several months before it altered the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Race to be next Fed Chair enters closing stages The markets are right to remain relatively sanguine over the upcoming decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, since the Fed’s low rate regime will probably continue with President Donald Trump... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in net imports and lower production contributed to a fall in crude inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks moved higher as demand for petroleum products slumped. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy rebounding from hurricane disruption Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) Housing starts continued their disappointing run in September, contracting for the third month in a row to leave them at their lowest level for a year. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma look to have had some... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NAFTA withdrawal no longer out of the question The demise of the NAFTA agreement would have a modest negative impact on the US economy. But if a unilateral withdrawal by the Trump administration signalled the beginning of a broader lurch toward... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rebound in industrial production in September confirms that the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey in late August, which largely explains the 0.7% m/m fall in that month, is now being... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Earnings repatriation unlikely to boost the economy The Republicans’ tax plans could result in a sizable chunk of the $2.6tn of earnings held overseas by US firms being repatriated. However, although the tax revenues from such a move could help to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Employment growth will continue to trend lower Even putting aside the hurricane-related fall in payroll employment in September specifically, trend employment growth has been gradually slowing for more than two years now. The surge in job openings... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
