US Economics Update Productivity growth back from the dead The sharp rebound in productivity this year, after falling outright in 2016, is positive news for the economy and suggests that real wages will pick up more rapidly soon. But with employment growth... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tax plan cuts the mortgage interest deduction The tax bill released today halved the size of new mortgages from which interest can be deducted, from $1 million to $500,000. That will hit prices of homes valued at over $500,000, and the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans’ tax plan edges closer to the finish line The House GOP tax bill released earlier today suggests that Republicans are edging towards their goal of passing tax reform this year. The proposals would add $1.5trn to the deficit over ten years, as... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) The Fed issued a very similar statement at the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting today, which included an upgrade to its assessment of economic growth. On balance, this is a marginally more... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The large drop in stocks of crude and gasoline last week would appear, at first glance, to be a further sign that the oil market is tightening. But much of the reduction in crude stocks was due to... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The small drop back in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October from a 13-year high is little to worry about, and it still suggests that manufacturing output will rebound in the fourth quarter. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) A rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in applications for refinance in October, and low inventory levels are continuing to hit demand for purchase applications. As a result, total mortgage... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The marginal dip in the seasonally-adjusted homeownership rate in the third quarter is another indication of the impact of low inventory on the housing market. Indeed, the homeowner vacancy remains... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a near 17-year high in October suggests that, following the slightly softer 2.4% annualised gain in real consumption in the third quarter... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth exceeded 6% for the first time in over three years in August, even as mortgage applications for home purchase have edged down. Prices are being... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the slump in the saving rate a danger? The decline in the household saving rate, to a near-decade low of 3.1% in September, is largely explained by the accompanying surge in household net wealth to a record high. Capital gains mean that... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to raise rates faster in 2018, no matter who’s Chair Regardless of who is nominated to be the next Fed Chair, we expect a rebound in core inflation will prompt the Fed to raise interest rates four times in 2018. The components that have dragged core CPI... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The 3.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP, which was almost unchanged from the 3.1% increase in the second, will be welcomed by the White House and demonstrates that the hurricanes ended up having... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls set to come storming back from hurricanes We are forecasting a huge 350,000 rebound in payroll employment in October, as the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are reversed. But the bigger picture remains that payroll employment growth will... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risk of Taylor as Fed Chair shouldn't be ignored If President Donald Trump is serious about being a “low-interest rate guy”, markets are probably right to brush off John Taylor’s chances of being nominated for Fed Chair. That said, we don’t agree... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
